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Povzetek: In the beginning of 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a crisis in which diagnostic methods for the genome detection of SARS-CoV-2 were urgently needed. Based on the very early publication of the basic principles for a diagnostic test for the genome detection of SARS-CoV-2, the first noncommercial laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) and commercial tests were introduced. As there was considerable uncertainty about the reliability and performance of different tests and different laboratories, INSTAND established external quality assessment (EQA) schemes for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 starting in April 2020. In close partnership in a scientific network, the EQA schemes were enhanced, especially the April, June and November 2020 terms. The enhancement included: (i) immediate provision of suitable virus including variants of concern at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak, (ii) short frequency of EQA schemes, (iii) concentration dependency of the testing and sensitivity check, achieved by using SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from a 10-fold dilution series of the same starting material, (iv) specificity check of the testing, achieved by using SARS-CoV-2-negative samples containing human coronaviruses or MERS CoV, (v) revealed samples for orientation on test performance during an ongoing or at the start of an EQA scheme using a pre-quantified SARS-CoV-2-positive EQA sample with a low viral RNA load of only 1 570 copies/mL assigned by digital PCR (dPCR) in June 2020 and (vi) quantified reference materials based on the experiences of the first two EQA schemes with dPCR-assigned values in copies/mL beginning in November 2020 for self-evaluation of the applied test system. This manuscript summarizes the results of a total of 13 EQA schemes for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 between April 2020 and June 2023 in which a total of 1 413 laboratories from 49 countries participated. The qualitative results for the detection of SARS-CoV-2-positive samples were between 95.8 % and 99.7 % correct positive, excluding extremely low concentration samples. For all SARS-CoV-2-negative EQA samples, the qualitative success rates ranged from 95.1 % to 99.4 % correct negative results. The widely varying values for the cycle threshold (Ct)/crossing point (Cq) reported for the different target genes and test systems were striking. A few laboratories reported quantitative results in copies/mL for several VOCs with an acceptable rate of over 93 % correct positive results in the majority of cases. The description of the enhanced EQA schemes for SARS-CoV-2 detection in terms of timing and scope can serve as a blueprint for the rapid development of a quality assessment of diagnostics for an emerging pathogen.
Ključne besede: COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, virus genome detection tests, reference materials, external quality assessment, laboratory medicine, epidemiology
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 18.06.2025; Ogledov: 78; Prenosov: 47
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Povzetek: The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
Ključne besede: epidemic, COVID-19, modelling SEIR, reproduction number
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.04.2025; Ogledov: 223; Prenosov: 103
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Ključne besede: psychology, mental well-being, prevention, covid-19 anxiety, emotional self-efficacy, mindfulness, covid-19, adults, Slovenia
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.01.2025; Ogledov: 286; Prenosov: 167
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Povzetek: Scientifc evidence regularly guides policy decisions1 , with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2 . In April 2020, an infuential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations (‘claims’) detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to eforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams fnding evidence supporting 16 (89 %) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy efectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed efects and there were no efects for highlighting individual benefts or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct diferences in efects between using the terms ‘physical distancing’ and ‘social distancing’. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientifc evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.
Ključne besede: psychology, behaviour, trusted leaders, adherence to behavioural interventions, covid-19, pandemic
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.01.2025; Ogledov: 266; Prenosov: 136
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Ključne besede: covid-19, tržne razmere, les, gozdarstvo, izpad dohodka
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.12.2024; Ogledov: 329; Prenosov: 108
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