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Robust and intuitive model for COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia
Matjaž Leskovar, Leon Cizelj, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
Ključne besede: epidemic, COVID-19, modelling SEIR, reproduction number
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.04.2025; Ogledov: 141; Prenosov: 69
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,35 MB)
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Prospective observational study of COVID-19 vaccination in patients with thoracic malignancies : adverse events, breakthrough infections and survival outcomes
Urška Janžič, Andrej Janžič, Abed Agbarya, Urška Bidovec, Katja Mohorčič, Marina Čakš, Peter Korošec, Matija Rijavec, Erik Škof, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Abstract: Due to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic, a preventive tool in the form of vaccination was introduced. Thoracic cancer patients had one of the highest rates of morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 disease, but the lack of data about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines in this population triggered studies like ours to explore these parameters in a cancer population. Out of 98 patients with thoracic malignancies vaccinated per protocol, 60–75% experienced some adverse events (AE) after their first or second vaccination, most of them were mild and did not interfere with their daily activities. Out of 17 severe AEs reported, all but one were resolved shortly after vaccination. No significant differences were noted considering AE occurrence between different cancer therapies received after the first or second vaccination dose, p = 0.767 and p = 0.441, respectively. There were 37 breakthrough infections either after the first (1), second (13) or third (23) vaccine dose. One patient died as a direct consequence of COVID-19 infection and respiratory failure, and another after disease progression with simultaneous severe infection. Eight patients had moderate disease courses, received antiviral therapies and survived without consequences. Vaccination did not affect the time to disease progression or death from underlying cancer.
Ključne besede: thoracic malignancies, cancer therapy, COVID-19 vaccination, adverse events, breakthrough infection
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 24.03.2025; Ogledov: 217; Prenosov: 110
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,28 MB)
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Supporting the Five Cs of positive youth development amid the COVID-19 pandemic : the impact on adolescents’ bullying behaviour
Tina Pivec, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Tailored interventions within the school context can promote the Five Cs of positive youth development—competence, confidence, character, caring, and connection—thus aiding in mitigating behaviours such as bullying. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of tailored interventions targeting each of the Five Cs and its indirect impact on bullying and victimisation during school closures. The sample comprised 66 students in four experimental groups (general, technical, vocational, and short vocational school) and 47 students in two control groups (general and vocational). Each experimental group was analysed separately, considering the specific contextual needs of each. Results varied across groups: competence, character, and caring remained unchanged post-intervention, while connection increased in the experimental group from general school, and confidence decreased in the experimental groups from technical and vocational schools. When compared to control groups from each school, experimental groups from general and vocational schools had higher connection and experimental group from general school had lower competence than control group from the same school. Bullying outcomes showed a decrease in verbal bullying and victimisation in the experimental group from general school, an increase in cyberbullying in the experimental group from short vocational school, and a decrease in social bullying in the experimental group from general school. The study suggests that brief interventions can positively influence aspects of the Five Cs, impacting bullying and victimisation outcomes.
Ključne besede: positive youth development, bullying, intervention, covid-19, pandemic, the Five Cs
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.01.2025; Ogledov: 222; Prenosov: 179
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,00 MB)
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A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19 : analysis
Kai Ruggeri, Friederike Stock, S. Alexander Haslam, Valerio Capraro, Žan Lep, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Scientifc evidence regularly guides policy decisions1 , with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2 . In April 2020, an infuential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations (‘claims’) detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to eforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams fnding evidence supporting 16 (89 %) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy efectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed efects and there were no efects for highlighting individual benefts or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct diferences in efects between using the terms ‘physical distancing’ and ‘social distancing’. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientifc evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.
Ključne besede: psychology, behaviour, trusted leaders, adherence to behavioural interventions, covid-19, pandemic
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.01.2025; Ogledov: 212; Prenosov: 105
.pdf Celotno besedilo (4,67 MB)
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Izpad dohodka v gozdarskem sektorju v obdobju od 16. 3. 2020 do 30. 6. 2020
Nike Krajnc, Darja Stare, Špela Ščap, Matevž Triplat, 2020, strokovni članek

Ključne besede: covid-19, tržne razmere, les, gozdarstvo, izpad dohodka
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.12.2024; Ogledov: 283; Prenosov: 91
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,26 MB)

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