1. Models for forecasting the traffic flow within the city of LjubljanaGašper Petelin, Rok Hribar, Gregor Papa, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Efficient traffic management is essential in modern urban areas. The development of intelligent traffic flow prediction systems can help to reduce travel times and maximize road capacity utilization. However, accurately modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies can be a difficult task, especially when real-time data collection is not possible. This study aims to tackle this challenge by proposing a solution that incorporates extensive feature engineering to combine historical traffic patterns with covariates such as weather data and public holidays. The proposed approach is assessed using a new real-world data set of traffic patterns collected in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The constructed models are evaluated for their accuracy and hyperparameter sensitivity, providing insights into their performance. By providing practical solutions for real-world scenarios, the proposed approach offers an effective means to improve traffic flow prediction without relying on real-time data.
Ključne besede: traffic modeling, time-series forecasting, traffic-count data set, machine learning, model comparison
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 28.09.2023; Ogledov: 11; Prenosov: 4
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2. The potential global distribution of an emerging forest pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, under a changing climateNikica Ogris, Rein Drenkhan, Petr Vahalík, Thomas L. Cech, Martin Mullett, Katherine Tubby, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Ključne besede: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Ogledov: 111; Prenosov: 56
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3. Experimental carbonation study for a durability assessment of novel cementitious materialsLucija Hanžič, Sebastijan Robič, Alisa Machner, Marie Helene Bjørndal, Klaartje De Weerdt, Yushan Gu, Benoit Bary, Rosa Maria Lample Carreras, Aljoša Šajna, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Durability predictions of concrete structures are derived from experience-based require- ments and descriptive exposure classes. To support durability predictions, a numerical model related to the carbonation resistance of concrete was developed. The model couples the rate of carbonation with the drying rate. This paper presents the accelerated carbonation and moisture transport exper- iments performed to calibrate and verify the numerical model. They were conducted on mortars with a water-cement ratio of either 0.6 or 0.5, incorporating either a novel cement CEM II/C (S-LL) (EnM group) or commercially available CEM II/A-S cement (RefM group). The carbonation rate was determined by visual assessment and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Moisture transport experi- ments, consisting of drying and resaturation, utilized the gravimetric method. Higher carbonation rates expressed in mm/day−0.5 were found in the EnM group than in the RefM group. However, the TGA showed that the initial portlandite (CH) content was lower in the EnM than in the RefM, which could explain the difference in carbonation rates. The resaturation experiments indicate an increase in the suction porosity in the carbonated specimens compared to the non-carbonated specimens. The study concludes that low clinker content causes lower resistance to carbonation, since less CH is available in the surface layers; thus, the carbonation front progresses more rapidly towards the core.
Ključne besede: mortar, absorption of water, carbonation, durability assessment, model verification
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.07.2023; Ogledov: 106; Prenosov: 44
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4. Causes and consequences of large-scale windthrow on the development of fir-beech forests in the Dinaric mountainsMatjaž Čater, Ajša Alagić, Mitja Ferlan, Jernej Jevšenak, Aleksander Marinšek, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: We investigated several aspects of windthrow that are relevant to our understanding and management of forest ecosystems. As an example, we used an extreme event in December 2017, when the strongest storm in recent history occurred in the Slovenian Dinaric High Karst. We examined influential factors such as soil properties, wind speed, precipitation and ecological consequences for the affected forests. Soil properties were measured around standing and fallen silver fir trees at all three research sites. Tree species composition in the regeneration was observed on plots with chemical and acoustic ungulate deterrents and on control plots without deterrents. Economic estimates of yield loss due to damage were calculated at the national level. A model of the potential threat from windthrow was also developed based on data collected from windthrow events and meteorological data over the past 20 years. Our results indicate that soil depth and mineral fraction depth were similar at sites with and without damaged trees and were not the determining factors for tree toppling. Plots with acoustic deterrents showed the most effective regeneration development, the least decline in silver fir and the greatest increase in noble hardwood seedlings, while plots with chemical deterrents showed the least browsing damage. The estimated economic loss of €16.1 million is 6.6% less than the harvest under normal conditions. The economic loss was relatively low due to the nature of the storm, with the predominant type of damage being uprooted trees with no damaged trunks. The windthrow hazard model revealed that a large number of consecutive events with strong winds in each section weakened the stand, which was subsequently knocked down during the next extreme wind and rainfall event.
Ključne besede: natural forest regeneration, windthrow, economic loss, browsing, ungulate deterrents, forest soil properties, potential threat model
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.06.2023; Ogledov: 563; Prenosov: 277
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5. Organoidi glioblastoma razkrivajo odpornost na standardno terapijoBernarda Majc, Anamarija Habič, Marta Malavolta, Aleksander Sadikov, Andrej Porčnik, Jernej Mlakar, Tamara Lah Turnšek, Barbara Breznik, Metka Novak, 2023, objavljeni povzetek znanstvenega prispevka na konferenci Ključne besede: glioblastom, organoidi, standardna terapija, model ex vivo, biologija raka
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 16.06.2023; Ogledov: 144; Prenosov: 39
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6. Model updating concept using bridge Weigh-in-Motion dataDoron Hekič, Andrej Anžlin, Maja Kreslin, Aleš Žnidarič, Peter Češarek, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Finite element (FE) model updating of bridges is based on the measured modal parameters and less frequently on the measured structural response under a known load. Until recently, the FE model updating did not consider strain measurements from sensors installed for weighing vehicles with bridge weigh-in-motion (B-WIM) systems. A 50-year-old multi-span concrete highway viaduct, renovated between 2017 and 2019, was equipped with continuous monitoring system with over 200 sensors, and a B-WIM system. In the most heavily instrumented span, the maximum measured longitudinal strains induced by the full-speed calibration vehicle passages were compared with the modelled strains. Based on the sensitivity study results, three variables that affected its overall stiffness were updated: Young’s modulus adjustment factor of all structural elements, and two anchorage reduction factors that considered the interaction between the superstructure and non-structural elements. The analysis confirmed the importance of the initial manual FE model updating to correctly reflect the non-structural elements during the automatic nonlinear optimisation. It also demonstrated a successful use of pseudo-static B-WIM loading data during the model updating process and the potential to extend the proposed approach to using random B-WIM-weighed vehicles for FE model updating and long-term monitoring of structural parameters and load-dependent phenomena.
Ključne besede: monitoring, bridge, viaduct, bridge weigh-in-motion (B-WIM), structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE), calibration, model updating
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 29.05.2023; Ogledov: 125; Prenosov: 44
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7. Development of groundwater flow models for the integrated management of the alluvial aquifer systems of Dravsko polje and Ptujsko polje, SloveniaAda Vengust, Anja Koroša, Janko Urbanc, Nina Mali, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: With increasing exploitation of groundwater resources and implementation of various activities in their recharge areas, it is vital to conduct a comprehensive assessment of aquifers to ensure their conservation and sustainable management. In the present study, we used a comprehensive approach to conceptualise and identify the functioning of two connected aquifer systems in north-eastern Slovenia: the Quaternary porous aquifers Dravsko polje and Ptujsko polje. The study presents the conceptual models of both aquifers and their interconnectedness using separate mathematical-numerical models with the aim of ensuring an integrated management of these alluvial aquifer systems. It also highlights the importance of understanding connections between such systems for simulating groundwater flow and transport of different contaminants.
Ključne besede: hydrogeological model, Modflow model, aquifer geometry, aquifer recharge, modelling
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 27.03.2023; Ogledov: 241; Prenosov: 60
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8. Verjetnostna napoved sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2023Nikica Ogris, Maarten De Groot, 2023, kratki znanstveni prispevek Ključne besede: gozdovi, varstvo gozdov, navadna smreka, Picea abies, sanitarni posek, napoved, prognoza, ogroženost, model, smrekovi podlubniki, Ips typographus, Pityogenes chalcographus
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 24.03.2023; Ogledov: 256; Prenosov: 84
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10. Preverjanje verjetnostne in količinske napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2022Nikica Ogris, Maarten De Groot, 2022, kratki znanstveni prispevek Ključne besede: gozdovi, zdravje gozdov, sanitarni posek, napovedi, podlubniki, Slovenija, navadna smreka, Picea abies, ogroženost, model, validacija, zmogljivost, zanesljivost, točnost, natančnost, AUC, občutljivost, specifičnost
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 14.12.2022; Ogledov: 239; Prenosov: 127
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