1. Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate changeDebojyoti Chakraborty, Albert Ciceu, Dalibor Ballian, Marta Benito Garzón, Andreas Bolte, Gregor Božič, Rafael Buchacher, Jaroslav Čepl, Eva Cremer, Alexis Ducousso, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Climate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr−1) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr−1. Ključne besede: forest resilience, forest, Europe, carbon sink, climate change, assisted migration, transferring seed provenances Objavljeno v DiRROS: 25.07.2024; Ogledov: 134; Prenosov: 121
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2. A new approach towards a user-driven coastal climate service to enhance climate resilience in European citiesRoberta Paranunzio, Iulia Anton, Elisa Adirosi, Tasneem Ahmed, Luca Baldini, Carlo Brandini, Filippo Giannetti, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, Alberto Ortolani, Francesco Pilla, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Coastal climate services play a crucial role in developing customised climate information for diverse end-users and stakeholders. To build climate-resilient societies, decision-makers should be empowered through easy access to powerful tools that enable timely adaptation to future and ongoing hazards. For this reason, fit-for-purpose climate services are needed to conduct accurate historical characterisation and projections for interpretative studies on climate- and water-related risks at the local coastal scale. The EU-funded SCORE project (Smart Control of Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities) utilises climate and marine services for the development of smart technologies that support nature-based solutions to address specific concerns, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding due to extreme weather events. As part of the SCORE project, decision-makers will be able to address climate change-related coastal effects in their own cities through novel participatory approaches (Coastal City Living Labs—CCLLs). As part of this framework, this work (i) discusses the main requirements for the identification of fit-for-purpose coastal climate services for local-scale impact studies in European coastal cities based on CCLL requests and prior knowledge and (ii) provides relevant parameters and features that fulfil the users’ needs. Ključne besede: ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate change adaptation, coastal climate service, urban areas, climate resilience, coastal hazards Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.01.2024; Ogledov: 490; Prenosov: 210
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3. Coastal flood risk assessment : an approach to accurately map flooding through national registry-reported eventsErik Kralj, Peter Kumer, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Ključne besede: sea flood prediction, flooding maps, climate change resilience, natural disaster registry, coastal inundation, flood-prone areas Objavljeno v DiRROS: 08.12.2023; Ogledov: 554; Prenosov: 212
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4. Surprising drought tolerance of Fir (Abies) species between past climatic adaptation and future projections reveals new chances for adaptive forest managementCsaba Mátyás, František Beran, Jaroslav Dostál, Jiří Čáp, Martin Fulín, Monika Vejpustková, Gregor Božič, Pál Balázs, Josef Frýdl, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: esearch Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results revealed the high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios are insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves% climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Besides silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100 mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual inventory assessments, considering also the resilience of populations. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests. Ključne besede: climate change, common garden, provenance test, silver fir, grand fir, Balkan firs, drought stress, resilience, climate transfer distance, adaptation Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.07.2021; Ogledov: 1107; Prenosov: 687
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