1. oVERFLOw project : Vulnerability assessment of embankments and bridges exposed to flooding hazards : Deliverable 6.4Valentina Bau', Mirko Kosič, Andrej Anžlin, Mario Bacic, 2022, končno poročilo o rezultatih raziskav Povzetek: This deliverable is a report on the development of a strategy for adaptation measures to flood events for the embankments, riverbanks and bridges, which can afterwards be used for the case study areas considered in the Overflow project. The deliverable presents a comprehensive approach that enables the choice of the best adaptation measures to overcome the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to flooding events. The most suitable countermeasures can therefore be selected based on the outcomes of the vulnerability assessment and risk forecasting tool. Such a strategy will be essential for the relevant authorities and IMs. The strategy proposes optimal adaptation measures depending on areas specificities, incorporating socio-economic and environmental multi-objective optimization. Ključne besede: adaptation measures, countermeasures, vulnerability, flooding, resilience, embankments, bridges Objavljeno v DiRROS: 29.07.2024; Ogledov: 135; Prenosov: 95
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2. A new approach towards a user-driven coastal climate service to enhance climate resilience in European citiesRoberta Paranunzio, Iulia Anton, Elisa Adirosi, Tasneem Ahmed, Luca Baldini, Carlo Brandini, Filippo Giannetti, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, Alberto Ortolani, Francesco Pilla, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Coastal climate services play a crucial role in developing customised climate information for diverse end-users and stakeholders. To build climate-resilient societies, decision-makers should be empowered through easy access to powerful tools that enable timely adaptation to future and ongoing hazards. For this reason, fit-for-purpose climate services are needed to conduct accurate historical characterisation and projections for interpretative studies on climate- and water-related risks at the local coastal scale. The EU-funded SCORE project (Smart Control of Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities) utilises climate and marine services for the development of smart technologies that support nature-based solutions to address specific concerns, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding due to extreme weather events. As part of the SCORE project, decision-makers will be able to address climate change-related coastal effects in their own cities through novel participatory approaches (Coastal City Living Labs—CCLLs). As part of this framework, this work (i) discusses the main requirements for the identification of fit-for-purpose coastal climate services for local-scale impact studies in European coastal cities based on CCLL requests and prior knowledge and (ii) provides relevant parameters and features that fulfil the users’ needs. Ključne besede: ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate change adaptation, coastal climate service, urban areas, climate resilience, coastal hazards Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.01.2024; Ogledov: 490; Prenosov: 211
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3. Low but significant evolutionary potential for growth, phenology and reproduction traits in European beechMarjana Westergren, Juliette Archambeau, Marko Bajc, Rok Damjanić, Adélaïde Theraroz, Hojka Kraigher, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio, Santiago C. González-Martínez, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Local survival of forest tree populations under climate change depends on existing genetic variation and their adaptability to changing environments. Responses to selection were studied in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) under field conditions. A total of 1087 adult trees, seeds, 1-year-old seedlings and established multiyear saplings were genotyped with 16 nuSSRs. Adult trees were assessed for phenotypic traits related to growth, phenology and reproduction. Parentage and paternity analyses were used to estimate effective female and male fecundity as a proxy of fitness and showed that few parents contributed to successful regeneration. Selection gradients were estimated from the relationship between traits and fecundity, while heritability and evolvability were estimated using mixed models and the breeder's equation. Larger trees bearing more fruit and early male flowering had higher total fecundity, while trees with longer growth season had lower total fecundity (directional selection). Stabilizing selection on spring phenology was found for female fecundity, highlighting the role of late frosts as a selection driver. Selection gradients for other traits varied between measurement years and the offspring cohort used to estimate parental fecundity. Compared to other studies in natural populations, we found low to moderate heritability and evolvability for most traits. Response to selection was higher for growth than for budburst, leaf senescence or reproduction traits, reflecting more consistent selection gradients across years and sex functions, and higher phenotypic variability in the population. Our study provides empirical evidence suggesting that populations of long-lived organisms such as forest trees can adapt locally, even at short-time scales. Ključne besede: climate change, Fagus sylvatica, heritability, in situ adaptation, response to selection, selection gradients Objavljeno v DiRROS: 12.12.2023; Ogledov: 447; Prenosov: 212
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4. Forest managers’ perspectives on environmental changes in the biosphere reserve Mura-Drava-DanubeMarcus Sallmannshofer, Rok Damjanić, Harald Vacik, Marjana Westergren, Tjaša Baloh, Gregor Božič, Mladen Ivanković, Gyula Kovács, Miran Lanšćak, Katharina Lapin, Laszlo Nagy, Silvija Krajter Ostoić, Saša Orlović, Srđan Stojnić, Peter Železnik, Milica Zlatković, Silvio Schueler, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Riparian forests are particularly vulnerable to environmental change and anthropogenic influences because they are highly dynamic ecosystems, thus proper adaptation measures are crucial. The implementation of these measures, however, strongly depends on the actors’ perceptions of the specific problems occurring in such forests. For understanding the constraints of specific interest groups toward different adaptation activities, information in this field is essential. By conducting a questionnaire survey we explore how different types of forest managers, i.e., forestry professionals, forest owners, and conservation managers, perceive the effects of environmental change on forest management in the recently established Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube. We show that these forest managers are highly aware of ongoing environmental changes and appraise deteriorating forest conditions, especially after observing changes themselves. Abiotic damage is expected to increase the most, followed by biotic damage, the spread of non-native species, and tree dieback. Nearly 80% of the survey respondents expect further changes and almost all of them intend to adapt their management of forests to mitigate or prepare for these changes. Nevertheless, we show differences in sensitivity to change and willingness to initiate adaptation actions by assessing adaptation thresholds: conservation managers appear generally more tolerant to changes, which results in higher thresholds to initiate management adaptation than forestry professionals Ključne besede: biosphere reserve Mura-Drava-Danube, forest management, sensitivity to environmental change, stakeholder perception, adaptation thresholds, riparian forest tree species Objavljeno v DiRROS: 31.05.2023; Ogledov: 580; Prenosov: 410
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5. A methodological proposal for the climate change risk assessment of coastal habitats based on the evaluation of ecosystem services : lessons learnt from the INTERREG project ECO-SMARTAlberto Barausse, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, Irene Occhipinti, Marco Abordi, Lara Endrizzi, Giovanna Guadagnin, Mirco Piron, Francesca Visintin, Liliana Vižintin, Alessandro Manzardo, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Climate change is seriously impacting coastal biodiversity and the benefits it provides to humans. This issue is particularly relevant in the case of the European Union’s Natura 2000 network of areas for nature protection, where the sensitivity of local ecosystems calls for intervention to increase resistance and resilience to climate-related risks. Given the complex ways in which climate can influence conservation hotspot areas, there is a need to develop effective strategic approaches and general operational models to identify priorities for management and inform adaptation and mitigation measures. Here, a novel methodological proposal to perform climate risk assessment in Natura 2000 sites is presented that implements the systematic approach of ISO 14090 in combination with the theoretical framework of ecosystem services assessment and local stakeholder participation to identify climate-related issues for local protected habitats and improve the knowledge base needed to plan sustainable conservation and restoration measures. The methodology was applied to five Natura 2000 sites located along the Adriatic coast of Italy and Slovenia. Results show that each of the assessed sites, despite being along the coast of the same sea, is affected by different climate-related issues, impacting different habitats and corresponding ecosystem services. This novel methodology enables a simple and rapid screening for the prioritization of conservation actions and of the possible further investigations needed to support decision making, and was found to be robust and of general applicability. These findings highlight the importance of designing site-specific adaptation measures, tailored to address the peculiar response to climate change of each site in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ključne besede: ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate change adaptation, nature conservation, sustainability, coastal management Objavljeno v DiRROS: 01.07.2022; Ogledov: 850; Prenosov: 545
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6. Genomics and adaptation in forest ecosystemsCharalambos Neophytou, Katrin Heer, Pascal Miles, Martina Peter, Tanja Pyhäjärvi, Marjana Westergren, Christian Rellstab, Felix Gugerli, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Rapid human-induced environmental changes like climate warming represent a challenge for forest ecosystems. Due to their biological complexity and the long generation time of their keystone tree species, genetic adaptation in these ecosystems might not be fast enough to keep track with conditions changing at such a fast pace. The study of adaptation to environmental change and its genetic mechanisms is therefore key for ensuring a sustainable support and management of forests. The 4-day conference of the European Research Group EvolTree (https://www.evoltree.eu) on the topic of “Genomics and Adaptation in Forest Ecosystems” brought together over 130 scientists to present and discuss the latest developments and findings in forest evolutionary research. Genomic studies in forest trees have long been hampered by the lack of high-quality genomics resources and affordable genotyping methods. This has dramatically changed in the last few years; the conference impressively showed how such tools are now being applied to study past demography, adaptation and interactions with associated organisms. Moreover, genomic studies are now finally also entering the world of conservation and forest management, for example by measuring the value or cost of interspecific hybridization and introgression, assessing the vulnerability of species and populations to future change, or accurately delineating evolutionary significant units. The newly launched conference series of EvolTree will hopefully play a key role in the exchange and synthesis of such important investigations. Ključne besede: gene conservation, genetic diversity, local adaptation, pathogens, selection, mycorrhizal fungi Objavljeno v DiRROS: 18.02.2022; Ogledov: 836; Prenosov: 614
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7. Non-native forest tree species in Europe : ǂthe ǂquestion of seed origin in afforestationParaskevi Alizoti, Jean-Charles Bastien, Debojyoti Chakraborty, Marcin Miroslav Klisz, Johan Kroon, Charalambos Neophytou, Silvio Schueler, Marcela van Loo, Marjana Westergren, Monika Konnert, Robert Brus, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: Non-native forest tree species have been introduced in Europe since the 16th century, but only in the second half of the 20th century the significance of the seed source origin for their economic use was recognized, resulting in the establishment of numerous provenance trials at a national, regional, European and International level, as those led by IUFRO. Breeding programs have also been launched in the continent for the most economically important species. Aim of this work is the formulation of provenance recommendations for planting of five non-native tree species in Europe (Douglas fir, grand fir, Sitka spruce, lodgepole pine and black locust), based on the information obtained from twenty countries, in the frame of the EU FP-1403 NNEXT Cost Action. The survey revealed that official and non-official national recommendations, based on provenance research results, have been elaborated and followed at a different level and extend for the above five species, but only for Douglas fir recommendations exist in almost all the participating to the survey countries. The compilation of provenance recommendations across Europe for each species is presented in the current work. Besides the recommended introduced seed sources, European seed sources are also preferred for planting, due to ease of access and high availability of forest reproductive material. European breeding programs yielding genetic material of high productivity and quality constitute currently the seed source of choice for several species and countries. Consolidation of trial data obtained across countries will allow the joint analysis that is urgently needed to draw solid conclusions, and will facilitate the development of ‘Universal-Response-Functions’ for the species of interest, rendering possible the identification of the genetic material suitable for global change. New provenance trial series that will test seed sources from the entire climatic range of the species, established in sites falling within and outside the environmental envelopes of their natural ranges, are urgently needed to pinpoint and understand the species-specific climate constraints, as well as to correlate functional traits to the seed origin and the environmental conditions of the test sites, so that the selection of suitable forest reproductive material of non-native tree species in the face of climate change can be feasible. Ključne besede: provenance recommendations, provenance testing, breeding programs, adaptation, exotic tree species, Douglas fir, Sitka spruce, grand fir, lodgepole pine, black locust Objavljeno v DiRROS: 09.02.2022; Ogledov: 1029; Prenosov: 819
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8. Surprising drought tolerance of Fir (Abies) species between past climatic adaptation and future projections reveals new chances for adaptive forest managementCsaba Mátyás, František Beran, Jaroslav Dostál, Jiří Čáp, Martin Fulín, Monika Vejpustková, Gregor Božič, Pál Balázs, Josef Frýdl, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: esearch Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results revealed the high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios are insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves% climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Besides silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100 mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual inventory assessments, considering also the resilience of populations. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests. Ključne besede: climate change, common garden, provenance test, silver fir, grand fir, Balkan firs, drought stress, resilience, climate transfer distance, adaptation Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.07.2021; Ogledov: 1107; Prenosov: 689
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9. Continent-wide tree species distribution models may mislead regional management decisions : a case study in the transboundary biosphere reserve Mura-Drava-DanubeMarcus Sallmannshofer, Debojyoti Chakraborty, Harald Vacik, Gábor Illés, Markus Löw, Andreas Rechenmacher, Katharina Lapin, Sophie Ette, Dejan Stojanović, Andrej Kobler, Silvio Schueler, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: The understanding of spatial distribution patterns of native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate species distribution models (SDMs), since riparian forest habitats have a limited spatial extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs to be represented in the environmental predictors. However, SDMs are urgently needed for adapting forest management to climate change, as well as for conservation and restoration of riparian forest ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic models alone are too coarse and frequently exclude relevant predictors. In this study, we compare a bioclimatic continent-wide model and a regional model based on climate, soil, and river data for central to south-eastern Europe, targeting seven riparian foundation species%Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia, F. excelsior, Populus nigra, Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis, and U. minor. The results emphasize the high importance of precise occurrence data and environmental predictors. Soil predictors were more important than bioclimatic variables, and river variables were partly of the same importance. In both models, five of the seven species were found to decrease in terms of future occurrence probability within the study area, whereas the results for two species were ambiguous. Nevertheless, both models predicted a dangerous loss of occurrence probability for economically and ecologically important tree species, likely leading to significant effects on forest composition and structure, as well as on provided ecosystem services. Ključne besede: bioclimatic model, ecological niche model, forest management, tree species selection, riparian forest habitat, climate change adaptation Objavljeno v DiRROS: 22.03.2021; Ogledov: 1450; Prenosov: 969
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