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Abstract: Forests are important ecosystems that face threats from climate change and global environmental shifts, with invasive alien plant species being a significant concern. Some of these invasive species have already become established, while others are in the process of naturalisation. Although forests are a relatively stable ecosystem, extreme weather events increase their vulnerability to change, and clearings left after natural disturbances are particularly susceptible to invasion by alien plant species (IAPS). We created risk maps of two species that have spread rapidly in the last decade: American pokeweed (Phytolacca americana) and the tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima). We prepared a generalised linear model based on the occurrence data collected within the LIFE ARTEMIS project. Eleven environmental variables were used to determine habitat characteristics. We constructed two models for each species: one covering the entirety of Slovenia and the other specifically for the forested areas in Slovenia, with the latter incorporating forest-specific variables (such as forest sanitation felling and monocultures). We observed the presence of both species at lower altitudes and in close proximity to water sources. American pokeweed tends to occur nearer to railways, while the presence of the tree of heaven is associated with areas lacking carbonate parent material and influenced by land use patterns. In forested areas, the occurrence of American pokeweed is influenced by forest habitat characteristics, such as disturbances caused by extreme weather events or the prevalence of Norway spruce monocultures. In contrast, the occurrence of the tree of heaven is influenced by more general environmental variables, such as altitude and proximity to railways. Consequently, we have generated risk maps for the entirety of Slovenia and separately for forested areas, both of which indicate similar levels of risk, particularly for the tree of heaven. The risk map for American pokeweed highlights numerous vulnerable areas, especially forest edges, which are highly susceptible to invasion. Furthermore, there is a higher likelihood of this species occurring in areas that have undergone sanitation felling. This study suggests that the production of risk maps of IAPS could be improved by focussing on habitat types and taking into account habitat-specific variables. This approach could enhance the early detection and management of these invasive species.
Keywords: American pokeweed, tree of heaven, species distribution modelling, forests, forest disturbance, habitat suitability
Published in DiRROS: 26.03.2024; Views: 341; Downloads: 1762
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Abstract: Shallow geothermal energy systems (SGES) may take different forms and have recently taken considerable attention due to energy geo-structures (EGS) resulting from the integration of heat exchange elements in geotechnical structures. Still, there is a lack of systematic design guidelines of SGES. Hence, in order to contribute towards that direction, the current study aims at reviewing the available SGES modeling options along with their various aspects and practices. This is done by first presenting the main analytical and numerical models and methods related to the thermal behavior of SGES. Then, the most important supplementary factors affecting such modeling are discussed. These include: (i) the boundary conditions, in the form of temperature variation or heat flow, that majorly affect the predicted thermal behavior of SGES; (ii) the spatial dimensions that may be crucial when relaxing the infinite length assumption for short heat exchangers such as energy piles (EP); (iii) the determination of SGES parameters that may need employing specific techniques to overcome practical difficulties; (iv) a short-term vs. long-term analysis depending on the thermal storage characteristics of GHE of different sizes; (v) the influence of groundwater that can have a moderating effect on fluid temperatures in both heating and cooling modes. Subsequently, thermo-mechanical interactions modeling issues are addressed that may be crucial in EGS that exhibit a dual functioning of heat exchangers and structural elements. Finally, a quite lengthy overview of the main software tools related to thermal and thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of SGES that may be useful for practical applications is given. A unified software package incorporating all related features of all SGES may be a future aim.
Keywords: shalow geothermal energy systems, energy geo-structures, thermal analysis, thermo-hydro-mechanical, modelling, software tools
Published in DiRROS: 05.03.2024; Views: 364; Downloads: 148
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Abstract: A hybrid version of the strong form meshless Radial Basis Function-Finite Difference (RBF-FD) method is introduced for solving thermo-mechanics. The thermal model is spatially discretised with RBF-FD, where trial functions are polyharmonic splines augmented with polynomials. For time discretisation, the explicit Euler method is employed. An extension of RBF-FD, the hybrid RBF-FD, is introduced for solving mechanical problems. The model is one-way coupled, where temperature affects displacements. The thermo-elastoplastic material response is considered where the stress field is generally non-smooth. The hybrid RBF-FD, where the finite difference method is used to discretise the divergence operator from the balance equation, is shown to be successful when dealing with such problems. The mechanical model is introduced in a plane strain and in a generalised plane strain (GPS) assumption. For the first time, this work presents a strong form RBF-FD for GPS problems subjected to integral form constraints. The proposed method is assessed regarding h-convergence and accuracy on the benchmark with heating an elastoplastic square. It is proven to be successful at solving one-way coupled thermo-elastoplastic problems. The proposed novel meshless approach is efficient, accurate, and robust. Its use in an industrial situation is provided in Part 2 of this paper.
Keywords: thermo-mechanical modelling, von Mises small strain plasticity, hybrid radial basis function generated finite differences, polyharmonic splines
Published in DiRROS: 28.02.2024; Views: 355; Downloads: 168
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Abstract: This study focuses on the kinetics of hydration, phase assemblage, microstructure and mechanical properties after various hydration times of two different BCSA cements at 5, 20, 40 and 60 ◦C and compares experimental data with thermodynamic modelling. Different curing temperatures change the type of hydrates and their amounts. Ye’elimite and gypsum in belite-ye’elimite-ferrite cements are almost fully reacted after 24 h of hydration at 20, 40 and 60 ◦C, while not at 5 ◦C. The hydration of belite is slower than the one of ye’elimite, but reaches a high degree of hydration after 150 days which is increasing with temperature. Less ettringite is present at elevated temperatures due to its increasing solubility, while more monosulfate is observed. Furthermore, with increasing temperature siliceous hydrogarnet forms at the expenses of strätlingite as well as more C S H is found as more belite reacts resulting in higher compressive strength. Dense and homogenous microstructure is observed at 5 ◦C, while it is more heterogeneous at higher temperatures. The presence of more ye’elimite resulted in higher ettringite and str¨atlingite formation and a higher compressive strength, while more belite yields more C S H in the hydrates and lower compressive strength.
Keywords: belite-ye’elimite-ferrite cement, temperature, hydration, thermodynamic modelling
Published in DiRROS: 11.12.2023; Views: 349; Downloads: 259
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Abstract: Introduction: Herbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes. Methods: By using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5). Results: Overall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa. Discussion: Our findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Keywords: species distribution modelling, global warming, range shift, climatic niche, biogeography, Europe
Published in DiRROS: 29.11.2023; Views: 445; Downloads: 233
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