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Query: "author" (Nikica Ogris) .

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Combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model for the prediction of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce because of bark beetles
Maarten De Groot, Nikica Ogris, 2022, original scientific article

Abstract: The European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is an eruptive forest pest that has caused a great deal of damage in the last decades because of increasing climatic extremes. In order to effectively manage outbreaks of this pest, it is important to predict where they will occur in the future. In this study we developed a predictive model of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) because of bark beetles. We used a time series of sanitary felling because of bark beetles from 1996 to 2020 in Slovenia. For the explanatory variables, we used soil, site, climate, geographic, and tree damage data from the previous year. The model showed that sanitary felling is negatively correlated with slope, soil depth, soil cation exchange capacity, and Standard Precipitation Index (less sanitary felling in wet years). On the other hand, soil base saturation percentage, temperature, sanitary felling because of bark beetles from the previous year, sanitary felling because of other abiotic factors from the previous year, and the amount of spruce were positively correlated with the sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles. The model had an R2 of 0.38. A prediction was performed for 2021 combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model. The model can be used to predict the amount of sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles and to refine the risk map for the next year, which can be used for forest management planning and economic loss predictions.
Keywords: sanitary felling, prediction, Ips typographus, Picea abies, Slovenia, forecasting, insect outbreak forest pest
Published in DiRROS: 21.02.2022; Views: 657; Downloads: 538
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170.
Biotic threats for 23 major non-native tree species in Europe
Elisabeth Pötzelsberger, Martin M. Gossner, Ludwig Beenken, Anna Gazda, Michal Petr, Tiina Ylioja, Nicola La Porta, Dimitrios N. Avtzis, Elodie Bay, Maarten De Groot, Kristjan Jarni, Nikica Ogris, Marjana Westergren, 2021, original scientific article

Abstract: For non-native tree species with an origin outside of Europe a detailed compilation of enemy species including the severity of their attack is lacking up to now. We collected information on native and non-native species attacking non-native trees, i.e. type, extent and time of first observation of damage for 23 important non-native trees in 27 European countries. Our database includes about 2300 synthesised attack records (synthesised per biotic threat, tree and country) from over 800 species. Insects (49%) and fungi (45%) are the main observed biotic threats, but also arachnids, bacteria including phytoplasmas, mammals, nematodes, plants and viruses have been recorded. This information will be valuable to identify patterns and drivers of attacks, and trees with a lower current health risk to be considered for planting. In addition, our database will provide a baseline to which future impacts on non-native tree species could be compared with and thus will allow to analyse temporal trends of impacts.
Published in DiRROS: 21.02.2022; Views: 621; Downloads: 689
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