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Abstract: We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere%ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air%sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and an Adriatic setup of Princeton ocean model (POM) (1%=30%1%=30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere%ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere%ocean fluxes and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD (conductivity, temperature, and depth) measurements from three locations in the northern Adriatic.We present objective verification of 2m atmosphere temperature forecasts using mean bias and standard deviation of errors scores from 23 meteorological stations in the eastern part of Italy. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20° during the bora but not significantly before and after the event. When compared to observations, two-way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a 4 times lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss. The spatial average of the two-way coupled atmosphere component is up to 0.3 °C colder than the one-way coupled setup, which is an improvement for prognostic lead times up to 20 h. Daily spatial average of the standard deviation of air temperature errors shows 0.15 °C improvement in the case of coupled system compared to the uncoupled. Coupled and uncoupled circulations in the northern Adriatic are predominantly wind-driven and show no significant mesoscale differences.
Keywords: sea, marine water, numerical modeling, physical oceanography, dense water, bora wind, Adriatic sea, Mediterranean sea, Adriatic shelf
Published in DiRROS: 26.07.2024; Views: 231; Downloads: 155
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Abstract: Global change is impacting the oceans in an unprecedented way, and multiple lines of evidence suggest that species distributions are changing in space and time. There is increasing evidence that multiple environmental stressors act together to constrain species habitat more than expected from warming alone. Here, we conducted a comprehensive study of how temperature and aragonite saturation state act together to limit Limacina helicina, globally distributed pteropods that are ecologically important pelagic calcifiers and an indicator species for ocean change. We co-validated three different approaches to evaluate the impact of ocean warming and acidification (OWA) on the survival and distribution of this species in the California Current Ecosystem. First, we used colocated physical, chemical, and biological data from three large-scale west coast cruises and regional time series; second, we conducted multifactorial experimental incubations to evaluate how OWA impacts pteropod survival; and third, we validated the relationships we found against global distributions of pteropods and carbonate chemistry. OWA experimental work revealed mortality increases under OWA, while regional habitat suitability indices and global distributions of L. helicina suggest that a multi-stressor framework is essential for understanding pteropod distributions. In California Current Ecosystem habitats, where pteropods are living close to their thermal maximum already, additional warming and acidification through unabated fossil fuel emissions (RCP 8.5) are expected to dramatically reduce habitat suitability.
Keywords: California current ecosystem, climate change, global data synthesis, habitat loss, habitat suitability modeling, multiple stressors, ocean acidification, pelagic calcifiers, pteropods, species distribution, warming
Published in DiRROS: 17.07.2024; Views: 202; Downloads: 211
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Abstract: Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling are important inputs into seismic hazard estimates. Although the importance of seismic coupling is often overlooked, it significantly impacts seismic hazard results. We present an estimation of upper and lower seismogenic depth and expected hypocentral depth and seismic coupling in the transition zone between the Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin, characterized by a complex deformation pattern, highly variable crustal thickness, and moderate seismic hazard, supporting the development of the 2021 seismic hazard model of Slovenia. The hazard model was based on three seismic source models: area source model, fault source model and smoothed seismicity (point) source model. We estimated the lower seismogenic depth using seismological and geological data and compared them. The seismological estimate was based on two regional earthquake catalogues prepared for this study. In the area source model, estimates of lower seismogenic depth from seismological data are deeper or equal to the ones derived from geological data, except in one case. In the fault source model, we analysed each fault individually and chose seismological lower depth estimates in 12 among 89 faults as more representative. The seismogenic thickness for each individual fault source was determined for seismic coupling determination. The seismic coupling was assessed by two approaches, i.e. we chose the most trusted value from the literature, and the value determined for each fault individually by using the approach based on the updated regional fault and earthquake data sets. The final estimate of seismic coupling ranges from 0.77 to 0.38. We compared the tectonic moment rate based on long-term slip rate using different values of seismic coupling with the seismic moment rate obtained from the earthquake catalogue. The analysis is done for the whole area, as well as for the individual area zones. The analysis of N–S components of estimated slip for the largest faults in the area of west Slovenia shows that the regional geological and geodetic shortening rates are comparable. The total activity rate of three global seismic source models is compared, which gives up to a 10 % difference. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the seismic activity in the region. The presented approach for seismic coupling estimation can be applied in cases where the total slip rate is given instead of its seismic part and can be used at regional or national level. The approach is also suitable for the cross-border harmonization of the European seismic hazard modelling data.
Keywords: seismic hazard, modeling, Slovenia
Published in DiRROS: 18.03.2024; Views: 650; Downloads: 468
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Abstract: Efficient traffic management is essential in modern urban areas. The development of intelligent traffic flow prediction systems can help to reduce travel times and maximize road capacity utilization. However, accurately modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies can be a difficult task, especially when real-time data collection is not possible. This study aims to tackle this challenge by proposing a solution that incorporates extensive feature engineering to combine historical traffic patterns with covariates such as weather data and public holidays. The proposed approach is assessed using a new real-world data set of traffic patterns collected in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The constructed models are evaluated for their accuracy and hyperparameter sensitivity, providing insights into their performance. By providing practical solutions for real-world scenarios, the proposed approach offers an effective means to improve traffic flow prediction without relying on real-time data.
Keywords: traffic modeling, time-series forecasting, traffic-count data set, machine learning, model comparison
Published in DiRROS: 28.09.2023; Views: 647; Downloads: 276
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Abstract: When creating a simulation model to assess the performance of buildings, there is usually a lack of feedback information. Only in the case of measurements of a real building is a direct comparison of the measured values and simulated results possible. Parameter data related to users’ behavior or other events can also be obtained. Their evaluated frequency, magnitude and duration, along with boundary conditions, are crucial for the results. It is clear that none of them can be predicted very accurately. Most of them, however, are needed for computer modeling. In this paper we analyzed the well-defined TRNSYS simulation model of offices equipped with radiant ceiling panels for heating and cooling. The model was based on real case offices and was validated based on measurements for 1 year. The analysis included simulations in order to define what effect the parameters related mainly to users have on the energy use and the indoor air temperatures. The study confirmed that specific human activities influence the annual energy use to a relatively small degree and that their effects often counteract. It also confirmed the even more important fact that although small, these activities can influence the thermal comfort of users. It is believed that despite the fact that this research was based on an analysis of offices equipped with radiant ceiling panels, most of the results could be applied generally.
Keywords: measurements, modeling, simulation, validation, analysis, energy use, temperature
Published in DiRROS: 15.09.2023; Views: 604; Downloads: 280
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