| Title: | The prediction of climate-driven habitat shifts of the rare and threatened moss Buxbaumia viridis in Slovenia |
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| Authors: | ID Božović, Djordje P. (Author)
ID Strgulc Krajšek, Simona (Author)
ID Kutnar, Lado (Author)
ID Kermavnar, Janez (Author)
ID Pintar, Anže Martin (Author)
ID Sabovljević, Marko S. (Author) |
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| Files: |  URL - Source URL, visit https://www.int-res.com/journals/esr/articles/esr01520
 PDF - Presentation file, download (527,23 KB)
MD5: 811918035AE91631A8D64E88AD6A3F62
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| Language: | English |
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| Typology: | 1.01 - Original Scientific Article |
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| Organization: |  SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute
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| Abstract: | Buxbaumia viridis is a peculiar, deadwood-dependent cryptogamous moss characterized by reduced gametophytes and prominent sporophytes that develop directly from the protonema. The species is threatened in many European countries, listed in the EU Habitats Directive (Annex II), and protected under the Bern Convention. We applied ensemble species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of B. viridis under multiple future climate scenarios and to assess its fate by analyzing the main bioclimatic and habitat factors influencing its survival in Slovenia, on the margin of the south-eastern Alps. The analysis was based on 54 occurrence records combined with bioclimatic, elevation and forest-type data using ensemble species distribution modeling. The models indicate that approximately 12% of Slovenia’s territory is potentially suitable for the species, primarily in mountainous regions, particularly in northern Slovenia. The highest probability of B. viridis occurrence was associated with very low minimum temperatures in the coldest month. Future projections predict a strong reduction in potentially suitable areas, ranging from 67.7 to 100%—depending on the reference period and emission scenario—indicating severe range contraction and a potential loss of suitable habitats and underscoring the urgent need for targeted conservation, monitoring and forest management strategies that preserve deadwood-rich forest stands with spruces and firs, to ensure long-term survival of B. viridis in Slovenia. |
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| Keywords: | bryophyte, climate change, forest, ENM, SDM, biomod2, Europe |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Year of publishing: | 2026 |
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| Number of pages: | str. 1-12 |
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| Numbering: | Vol. 60, article no. ǂesr01520 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DiRROS-31382  |
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| UDC: | 630*17:630*111 |
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| ISSN on article: | 1613-4796 |
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| DOI: | 10.3354/esr01520 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 286489347 |
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| Note: | Nasl. z nasl. zaslona;
Opis vira z dne 30. 7. 2026;
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| Publication date in DiRROS: | 30.07.2026 |
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| Views: | 31 |
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| Downloads: | 12 |
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