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Title: Preverjanje verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2025 Authors: ID Ogris, Nikica (Author) ID De Groot, Maarten (Author) Files: URL - Source URL, visit https://www.zdravgozd.si/prognoze_zapis.aspx?idpor=74   PDF - Presentation file, download (1,10 MB) MD5: E19F20FC1F01CD16A4E041E249B9A389   Language: Slovenian Typology: 1.03 - Other scientific articles Organization: SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute Abstract: Preverili smo zanesljivost verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2024. Verjetnostni model za napoved sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov je potrdil visoko zanesljivost (AUC modela = 0,83, AUC napovedi = 0,83). Ugotovili smo optimalni prag za verjetnost sanitarnega poseka, ki ga bomo lahko uporabili pri naslednjih napovedih za bolj jasno določitev območij, kjer se bodo potencialno pojavila žarišča smrekovih podlubnikov. Napoved za leto 2024 smo naredili s pragom 0,45, ki pa se je izkazal za prenizkega, saj je bilo 24,1 % modelskih celic lažno pozitivnih. Optimalen prag za verjetnostni model v letu 2024 je bil 0,50, ki ga predlagamo za izdelavo vseh nadaljnjih verjetnostnih napovedih sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji. Keywords: gozdovi, varstvo gozdov, navadna smreka, Picea abies, sanitarni posek, napovedi, ogroženost gozdov, modeli, validacija, zmogljivost, zanesljivost, točnost, natančnost, AUC, občutljivost, specifičnost Publication status: Published Publication version: Version of Record Publication date: 01.01.2025 Year of publishing: 2024 Number of pages: str. 1-4 PID: 20.500.12556/DiRROS-24511  UDC: 630*41(045)=163.6 ISSN on article: 2350-6466 DOI: 10.20315/NZG.74  COBISS.SI-ID: 259802883  Note: Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 3. 12. 2025; Publication date in DiRROS: 03.12.2025 Views: 99 Downloads: 62 Metadata:    Cite this work Plain text BibTeX EndNote XML EndNote/Refer RIS ABNT ACM Ref AMA APA Chicago 17th Author-Date Harvard IEEE ISO 690 MLA Vancouver : Copy citation

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Record is a part of a journal

Title:	Napovedi o zdravju gozdov
Publisher:	Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije
ISSN:	2350-6466
COBISS.SI-ID:	274469376

Document is financed by a project

Funder:	Other - Other funder or multiple funders
Funding programme:	Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo, gozdarstvo in prehrano
Project number:	JGS
Name:	Javna gozdarska služba
Acronym:	JGS

Licences

License:	CC BY-SA 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International
Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
Description:	This Creative Commons license is very similar to the regular Attribution license, but requires the release of all derivative works under this same license.

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	Validation of the probabilistic forecast of sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia in 2025
Abstract:	We tested the reliability of the probabilistic forecast of the sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia in 2024. The probabilistic model for the prediction of the sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles showed high reliability (model AUC = 0.83, forecast AUC = 0.83). We identified an optimal threshold for the probability of sanitation felling, which can be used in subsequent forecasts to more clearly identify areas where potential outbreaks of spruce bark beetles are likely to occur. A threshold of 0.45 was used for the forecast of 2024, but this proved to be too low, as 24.1% of the model cells were false positives. The optimal threshold for the probabilistic model in 2024 was 0.50, which we propose to use for future probabilistic forecasts of sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia.

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