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Title:Robust and intuitive model for COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia
Authors:ID Leskovar, Matjaž, Institut "Jožef Stefan" (Author)
ID Cizelj, Leon, Institut "Jožef Stefan" (Author)
Files:URL URL - Source URL, visit https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/
 
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MD5: ED74B590C566E9DDB419950B62DD18B4
 
Language:English
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:Logo IJS - Jožef Stefan Institute
Abstract:The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
Keywords:epidemic, COVID-19, modelling SEIR, reproduction number
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Submitted for review:09.02.2022
Article acceptance date:03.03.2022
Publication date:01.04.2022
Publisher:Zveza strojnih inženirjev in tehnikov Slovenije [etc.]
Year of publishing:2022
Number of pages:str. 213-224, S 29
Numbering:Vol. 68, no. 4
Source:Slovenija
PID:20.500.12556/DiRROS-21943 New window
UDC:519.6:614.8:331.454:616-036.22
ISSN on article:0039-2480
DOI:10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:105492739 New window
Copyright:© 2022 The Authors.
Publication date in DiRROS:11.04.2025
Views:97
Downloads:49
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
:
LESKOVAR, Matjaž and CIZELJ, Leon, 2022, Robust and intuitive model for COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia. Strojniški vestnik [online]. 2022. Vol. 68, no. 4, p. 213–224, s 29. [Accessed 20 April 2025]. DOI 10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50. Retrieved from: https://dirros.openscience.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=21943
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Strojniški vestnik
Shortened title:Stroj. vestn.
Publisher:Zveza strojnih inženirjev in tehnikov Slovenije [etc.], = Association of Mechanical Engineers and Technicians of Slovenia [etc.
ISSN:0039-2480
COBISS.SI-ID:762116 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:P2-0026-2020
Name:Reaktorska tehnika

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:01.04.2022
Applies to:VoR

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Robusten in intuitiven model epidemije COVID-19 v Sloveniji
Keywords:epidemija, COVID-19, modeliranje, SEIR, reprodukcijsko število, javnozdravstveni ukrepi


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