| Abstract: | Outcome bias is a systematic error of judgment in which the quality of past decisions is evaluated based on its outcomes, which were not known to the decision maker at the time of deciding, nor should they affect the assessment of the quality of the deci sion. It is characteristic for judgments in situations when not all information needed is accessible, which precludes us from making a clear decision that leads to the desi red outcome. Thus, the quality of the decision must be independent of the eventual outcome. In other words, in such situations we are biased because the quality of the decision should be judged according to the available information, the intention of the decisionmaker and the decisionmaking process, but not the outcome. Outcome bias can be assessed with intrapersonal and interpersonal experimental designs, in which, using vignettes, it is registered as the difference between two evaluations of the qua lity of decisions that led to positive and negative outcomes, taking into account also the evaluation of the decision when the outcome is unknown. When constructing the stimuli, care should be taken about the structure of the vignette, the decision domain, the importance of the decision, and the decision maker because all of these factors can influence the strength of this bias. Although no single integral theory explains the cognitive mechanism of outcome bias, explanations derived from rational models or Prospect Theory, motivated reasoning, and the Justification Model are useful. Because outcome bias can also affect our (worse) future decisions, research in the field should focus on testing different strategies to reduce it, such as encouraging consideration of alternative outcomes or simultaneous assessment. |
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