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Abstract: Early detection is important for the management of invasive alien species. In the last decade citizen science has become an important source of such data. Here, we used opportunistic records from the “LIFE ARTEMIS” citizen science project, in which people submitted records from places where they observed tree pests, to understand the distribution of a rapidly-spreading forest pest: the oak lace bug (Corythucha arcuata) in Slovenia. These citizen science records were not distributed randomly. We constructed a species distribution model for C. arcuata that accounted for the biased distribution of citizen science by using the records of other tree pests and diseases from the same project as pseudo-absences (so-called constrained pseudo-absences), and compared this to a model with pseudo-absences selected randomly from across Slovenia. We found that the constrained pseudo-absence model showed that C. arcuata was more likely to be found in east, in places with more oak trees and at lower elevations, and also closer to highways and railways, indicating introduction and dispersal by accidental human transport. The outputs from the model with random pseudo-absences were broadly similar, although estimates from this model tended to be higher and less precise, and some factors that were significant (proximity to minor roads and human settlements) were artefacts of recorder bias, showing the importance of taking the distribution of recording into account wherever possible. The finding that C. arcuata is more likely to be found near highways allows us to design advice for where future citizen science should be directed for efficient early detection.
Keywords: Oak lace bug, ecological modelling, citizen science, invasive alien species, early detection, Corythucha arcuata
Published in DiRROS: 08.09.2022; Views: 504; Downloads: 254
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Abstract: Five-toed jerboas of the subfamily Allactaginae comprise several complex taxa occurring over a wide distribution range covering a large part of the Eurasian arid belt. In this study, we employed current methods of molecular phylogenetics based on 15 nuclear genes and the mitochondrial gene cytb to revise relations and systematics within Allactaginae. We also applied species distribution modelling projected on paleo-environmental data to reconstruct the geographic patterns of speciation in Allactaginae. We elucidated the intergeneric relationships within this subfamily and clarifed interspecies relations within the genus Scarturus. Moreover, our results demonstrate the species status of S. caprimulga; outline the currently understudied diversity within Orientallactaga, Allactaga, and Pygeretmus; and improve the divergence estimates of these taxa. Based on our results from modelling of geographic range fragmentation in allactagines, we suggest the dating and location of speciation events and present hypotheses regarding general habitat niche conservatism in small mammals.
Keywords: molecular phylogeny, mitochondrial DNA, nuclear DNA, habitat modelling, phylogenetic history
Published in DiRROS: 28.01.2022; Views: 728; Downloads: 605
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Abstract: Reliable data and methods for assessing changes in wildlife population size over time are necessary for management and conservation. For most species, assessing abundance is an expensive and labor-intensive task that is not affordable on a frequent basis. We present a novel approach to reconstructing brown bear population dynamics in Slovenia in the period 1998-2019, based on the combination of two CMR non-invasive genetic estimates (in 2007 and 2015) and long-term mortality records, to show how the latter can help the study of population dynamics in combination with point-in-time estimates. The spring (i.e. including newborn cubs) population size estimate was 383 (CI: 336-432) bears in 1998 and 971 (CI: 825-1161) bears in 2019. In this period, the average annual population growth rate was 4.5 %. The predicted population size differed by just 7 % from the non-invasive genetic size estimate after eight years, suggesting that the method is reliable. It can predict the evolution of the population size under different management scenarios and provide information on key parameters, e.g. background mortality and the sex- and age-structure of the population. Our approach can be used for several other wildlife species, but it requires reliable mortality data over time.
Keywords: genetic estimates of population size, mortality records, population monitoring, population size, predictive modelling, brown bear
Published in DiRROS: 28.03.2021; Views: 4084; Downloads: 2370
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Keywords: catalyst deactivation, methanol synthesis, deactivation mechanism, modelling
Published in DiRROS: 24.11.2020; Views: 1315; Downloads: 972
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Abstract: Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) is among the most sensitive coniferous species to ongoing climate change. However, previous studies on its growth response to increasing temperatures have yielded contrasting results (from stimulation to suppression), suggesting highly site-specific responses. Here, we present the first study that applies two independent approaches, i.e. the nonlinear, process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model and linear daily response functions. Data were collected at twelve sites in Slovenia differing in climate regimes and ranging elevation between 170 and 1300 m a.s.l. VS model results revealed that drier Norway spruce sites at lower elevations are mostly moisture limited, while moist high-elevation sites are generally more temperature limited. Daily response functions match well the pattern of growth-limiting factors from the VS model and further explain the effect of climate on radial growth: prevailing growth-limiting factors correspond to the climate variable with higher correlations. Radial growth correlates negatively with rising summer temperature and positively with higher spring precipitation. The opposite response was observed for the wettest site at the highest elevation, which positively reacts to increased summer temperature and will most likely benefit from a warming climate. For all other sites, the future radial growth of Norway spruce largely depends on the balance between spring precipitation and summer temperature.
Keywords: Vaganov-Shashkin model, climate-growth correlations, tree rings, process-based modelling, dendroTools, dendroclimatology
Published in DiRROS: 21.10.2020; Views: 1245; Downloads: 991
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