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1.
Climate change increases the number of landslides at the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian and Mediterranean regions
Mateja Jemec Auflič, Nejc Bezak, Ela Šegina, Peter Frantar, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Anže Medved, Tina Peternel, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: During the next few decades, changes in rainfall frequency and magnitude are expected to have major impacts on landscape evolution, social, and economic aspects of human society. We focus on seasonal rainfall variations by the end of the twenty-first century to define affected landslide-prone areas, future landslide alerts and the impact of landslides on landscape development in the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian, and Mediterranean region. A moderate and a worst-case climate scenario from CMIP5 global climate simulations were considered to determine the impact of rainfall on the two most common types of landslides in region, shallow and deep-seated landslides. The observed changes in the occurrence of shallow landslides are significant, especially in the winter months, where we can expect more landslide-prone areas compared to the baseline period. Shallow landslides will have a greater impact on the landscape in spring and summer than deep-seated landslides, especially in vineyards.
Ključne besede: podnebne spremembe, zemeljski plazovi
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 04.01.2024; Ogledov: 249; Prenosov: 59
.pdf Celotno besedilo (3,23 MB)

2.
Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st century
Mateja Jemec Auflič, Gašper Bokal, Špela Kumelj, Anže Medved, Mojca Dolinar, Jernej Jež, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.
Ključne besede: climate change, landslides, models, hazard, prediction
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 09.03.2022; Ogledov: 796; Prenosov: 304
.pdf Celotno besedilo (4,78 MB)
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