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Title:Preverjanje verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2024
Authors:ID Ogris, Nikica (Author)
ID De Groot, Maarten (Author)
Files:URL URL - Source URL, visit https://www.zdravgozd.si/prognoze_zapis.aspx?idpor=70
 
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MD5: D88F73DF1492AD89B21D0DC1675F9852
 
Language:Slovenian
Typology:1.03 - Other scientific articles
Organization:Logo SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute
Abstract:Preverili smo zanesljivost verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2024. Verjetnostni model za napoved sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov je potrdil visoko zanesljivost (AUC modela = 0,83, AUC napovedi = 0,83). Ugotovili smo optimalni prag za verjetnost sanitarnega poseka, ki ga bomo lahko uporabili pri naslednjih napovedih za bolj jasno določitev območij, kjer se bodo potencialno pojavila žarišča smrekovih podlubnikov. Napoved za leto 2024 smo naredili s pragom 0,45, ki pa se je izkazal za prenizkega, saj je bilo 24,1 % modelskih celic lažno pozitivnih. Optimalen prag za verjetnostni model v letu 2024 je bil 0,50, ki ga predlagamo za izdelavo vseh nadaljnjih verjetnostnih napovedih sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji.
Keywords:gozdovi, varstvo gozdov, navadna smreka, Picea abies, sanitarni posek, napovedi, ogroženost gozdov, modeli, validacija, zmogljivost, zanesljivost, točnost, natančnost, AUC, občutljivost, specifičnost
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Publication date:01.01.2024
Year of publishing:2024
Number of pages:str. 1-4
PID:20.500.12556/DiRROS-21078 New window
UDC:630*41(045)=163.6
ISSN on article:2350-6466
DOI:10.20315/NZG.70 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:219796739 New window
Note:Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 19. 12. 2024;
Publication date in DiRROS:19.12.2024
Views:169
Downloads:95
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
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OGRIS, Nikica and DE GROOT, Maarten, 2024, Preverjanje verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2024. Napovedi o zdravju gozdov [online]. 2024. P. 1–4. [Accessed 3 April 2025]. DOI 10.20315/NZG.70. Retrieved from: https://dirros.openscience.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=21078
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Napovedi o zdravju gozdov
Publisher:Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije
ISSN:2350-6466
COBISS.SI-ID:274469376 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:Other - Other funder or multiple funders
Funding programme:Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo, gozdarstvo in prehrano
Project number:JGS
Name:Javna gozdarska služba
Acronym:JGS

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Validation of the probabilistic forecast of sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia in 2024
Abstract:We tested the reliability of the probabilistic forecast of the sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia in 2024. The probabilistic model for the prediction of the sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles showed high reliability (model AUC = 0.83, forecast AUC = 0.83). We identified an optimal threshold for the probability of sanitation felling, which can be used in subsequent forecasts to more clearly identify areas where potential outbreaks of spruce bark beetles are likely to occur. A threshold of 0.45 was used for the forecast of 2024, but this proved to be too low, as 24.1% of the model cells were false positives. The optimal threshold for the probabilistic model in 2024 was 0.50, which we propose to use for future probabilistic forecasts of sanitation felling of spruce due to bark beetles in Slovenia.


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