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Title:Combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model for the prediction of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce because of bark beetles
Authors:ID De Groot, Maarten (Author)
ID Ogris, Nikica (Author)
Files:URL URL - Presentation file, visit https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/2/319/htm
 
.pdf PDF - Presentation file, download (1,24 MB)
MD5: 2C892B7C4487641B490B28058038D649
 
URL URL - Source URL, visit https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020319
 
Language:English
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:Logo SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute
Abstract:The European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is an eruptive forest pest that has caused a great deal of damage in the last decades because of increasing climatic extremes. In order to effectively manage outbreaks of this pest, it is important to predict where they will occur in the future. In this study we developed a predictive model of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) because of bark beetles. We used a time series of sanitary felling because of bark beetles from 1996 to 2020 in Slovenia. For the explanatory variables, we used soil, site, climate, geographic, and tree damage data from the previous year. The model showed that sanitary felling is negatively correlated with slope, soil depth, soil cation exchange capacity, and Standard Precipitation Index (less sanitary felling in wet years). On the other hand, soil base saturation percentage, temperature, sanitary felling because of bark beetles from the previous year, sanitary felling because of other abiotic factors from the previous year, and the amount of spruce were positively correlated with the sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles. The model had an R2 of 0.38. A prediction was performed for 2021 combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model. The model can be used to predict the amount of sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles and to refine the risk map for the next year, which can be used for forest management planning and economic loss predictions.
Keywords:sanitary felling, prediction, Ips typographus, Picea abies, Slovenia, forecasting, insect outbreak forest pest
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2022
Number of pages:11 str.
Numbering:art. 319, iss. 2
PID:20.500.12556/DiRROS-14751 New window
UDC:630*4
ISSN on article:1999-4907
DOI:10.3390/f13020319 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:98249987 New window
Note:Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 21. 2. 2022;
Publication date in DiRROS:21.02.2022
Views:1104
Downloads:968
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
:
DE GROOT, Maarten and OGRIS, Nikica, 2022, Combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model for the prediction of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce because of bark beetles. Forests [online]. 2022. Vol. 319, no. 2. [Accessed 8 April 2025]. DOI 10.3390/f13020319. Retrieved from: https://dirros.openscience.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=14751
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Forests
Shortened title:Forests
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:1999-4907
COBISS.SI-ID:3872166 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:P4-0107
Name:Gozdna biologija, ekologija in tehnologija

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:21.02.2022

Secondary language

Language:Undetermined
Keywords:sanitarna sečnja, napovedi, Ips typographus, Picea abies, Slovenija, napovedovanje, izbruh žuželk, gozdni škodljivci


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