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Title:Reconstruction of brown bear population dynamics in Slovenia in the period 1998-2019 : ǂa ǂnew approach combining genetics and long-term mortality data
Authors:ID Jerina, Klemen (Author)
ID Ordiz, Andrés (Author)
Files:.pdf PDF - Presentation file, download (1005,41 KB)
MD5: 75AC7F069C2EA6AAE3943BC89BBF4451
 
URL URL - Source URL, visit https://doi.org/10.20315/ASetL.124.3
 
Language:English
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:Logo SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute
Abstract:Reliable data and methods for assessing changes in wildlife population size over time are necessary for management and conservation. For most species, assessing abundance is an expensive and labor-intensive task that is not affordable on a frequent basis. We present a novel approach to reconstructing brown bear population dynamics in Slovenia in the period 1998-2019, based on the combination of two CMR non-invasive genetic estimates (in 2007 and 2015) and long-term mortality records, to show how the latter can help the study of population dynamics in combination with point-in-time estimates. The spring (i.e. including newborn cubs) population size estimate was 383 (CI: 336-432) bears in 1998 and 971 (CI: 825-1161) bears in 2019. In this period, the average annual population growth rate was 4.5 %. The predicted population size differed by just 7 % from the non-invasive genetic size estimate after eight years, suggesting that the method is reliable. It can predict the evolution of the population size under different management scenarios and provide information on key parameters, e.g. background mortality and the sex- and age-structure of the population. Our approach can be used for several other wildlife species, but it requires reliable mortality data over time.
Keywords:genetic estimates of population size, mortality records, population monitoring, population size, predictive modelling, brown bear
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2021
Number of pages:str. 29-40
Numbering:Vol. 124
PID:20.500.12556/DiRROS-13799 New window
UDC:630*149+630*151(497.4)"1998-2019"=111
ISSN on article:2335-3112
DOI:10.20315/ASetL.124.3 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:57402115 New window
Publication date in DiRROS:28.03.2021
Views:4008
Downloads:2345
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Acta Silvae et Ligni
Publisher:Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije, založba Silva Slovenica, Biotehniška fakulteta, Oddelek za gozdarstvo in obnovljive gozdne vire, Biotehniška fakulteta, Oddelek za lesarstvo
ISSN:2335-3112
COBISS.SI-ID:266761216 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:P4-0059
Name:Gozd, gozdarstvo in obnovljivi gozdni viri

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:J4-7362
Name:Razvoj sodobnih metodoloških pristopov za preučevanje vedenja prostoživečih živali: raziskave nastanka problematičnih medvedov v kontrastnih okoljih Evrope

Funder:EC - European Commission
Project number:LIFE13 NAT/SI/0005

Licences

License:CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Description:A Creative Commons license that bans commercial use and requires the user to release any modified works under this license.
Licensing start date:28.03.2021

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Rekonstrukcija populacijske dinamike rjavega medveda v Sloveniji v obdobju 1998-2019 : nov pristop na osnovi genetskih ocen in dolgoletnega niza podatkov o smrtnosti
Abstract:Za upravljanje in ohranjanje populacij prostoživečih živali so potrebni zanesljivi podatki in metode za ocenjevanje njihove številčnosti. Ugotavljanje številčnosti je pri večini vrst drago in zahtevno, zato ga ni mogoče pogosto izvajati. V članku predstavljamo nov pristop, ki smo ga pripravili na primeru rekonstrukcije populacijske dinamike rjavega medveda v Sloveniji v obdobju 1998-2019. Pristop temelji na kombinaciji dveh ocen njegove številčnosti z neinvazivnimi genetskimi metodami (v letih 2007 in 2015) in dolgoletnega niza podatkov monitoringa smrtnosti. Ocena 'pomladanske' (t.j. največje letne - po poleganju mladičev) številčnosti rjavega medveda v Sloveniji za leto 1998 znaša 383 (CI: 336-432), za leto 2019 pa 971 osebkov (CI: 825-1161). Povprečna letna stopnja rasti populacije je bila v tem obdobju 4,5 %. Modelno ocenjena številčnost populacije se je od ugotovljene z genetsko metodo po osmih letih razlikovala le za 7 %, kar nakazuje, da je pristop zanesljiv oz. so njegovi rezultati za upravljavske namene dovolj kakovostni. Pristop omogoča tudi napovedovanje prihodnje populacijske dinamike pri različnih scenarijih upravljanja in okvirno ocenjevanje ključnih populacijskih parametrov, kot so spolna in starostna sestava, relativna rodnost in naravna smrtnost populacije. Pristop je uporaben tudi za več drugih populacij in živalskih vrst, vendar so zanj potrebni zanesljivi dolgoletni podatki o smrtnosti.
Keywords:genetske ocene številčnosti populacij, podatki smrtnosti, monitoring populacij, številčnost populacije, napovedno modeliranje, rjavi medved


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