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Title:Evaluating WorldClim version 1 (1961-1990) as the baseline for sustainable use of forest and environmental resources in a changing climate
Authors:ID Marchi, Maurizio (Author)
ID Sinjur, Iztok (Author)
ID Bozzano, Michele (Author)
ID Westergren, Marjana (Author)
Files:.pdf PDF - Presentation file, download (2,62 MB)
MD5: 0F93243BD23F0F419BDE6CC0368986B9
 
URL URL - Source URL, visit https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3043
 
Language:English
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:Logo SciVie - Slovenian Forestry Institute
Abstract:WorldClim version 1 is a high-resolution, global climate gridded dataset covering 1961-1990; a ˝normal˝ climate. It has been widely used for ecological studies thanks to its free availability and global coverage. This study aims to evaluate the quality of WorldClim data by quantifying any discrepancies by comparison with an independent dataset of measured temperature and precipitation records across Europe. BIO1 (mean annual temperature, MAT) and BIO12 (mean total annual precipitation, MAP) were used as proxies to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the WorldClim grids. While good representativeness was detected for MAT, the study demonstrated a bias with respect to MAP. The average difference between WorldClim predictions and climate observations was around +0.2 °C for MAT and -48.7 mm for MAP, with large variability. The regression analysis revealed a good correlation and adequate proportion of explained variance for MAT (adjusted R2 = 0.856) but results for MAP were poor, with just 64% of the variance explained (adjusted R2 = 0.642). Moreover no spatial structure was found across Europe, nor any statistical relationship with elevation, latitude, or longitude, the environmental predictors used to generate climate surfaces. A detectable spatial autocorrelation was only detectable for the two most thoroughly sampled countries (Germany and Sweden). Although further adjustments might be evaluated by means of geostatistical methods (i.e., kriging), the huge environmental variability of the European environment deeply stressed the WorldClim database. Overall, these results show the importance of an adequate spatial structure of meteorological stations as fundamental to improve the reliability of climate surfaces and derived products of the research (i.e., statistical models, future projections).
Keywords:spatial analysis, spatial interpolation, geostatistics, ecological mathematics
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2019
Number of pages:str. 1-14
Numbering:Letn. 11, št. 11
PID:20.500.12556/DiRROS-11013 New window
UDC:630*18:630*51
ISSN on article:2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su11113043 New window
COBISS.SI-ID:5403046 New window
Note:Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 6. 6. 2019; Soavtorji: Iztok Sinjur, Michele Bozzano, Marjana Westergren;
Publication date in DiRROS:20.02.2020
Views:1724
Downloads:1037
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Sustainability
Shortened title:Sustainability
Publisher:MDPI
ISSN:2071-1050
COBISS.SI-ID:5324897 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:P4-0107
Name:Gozdna biologija, ekologija in tehnologija

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:29.05.2019

Secondary language

Language:Undetermined
Keywords:prostorska analiza, prostorska interpolacija, geostatistika, ekološka matematika


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