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12. Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European AlpsCostanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, Filippo Giorgi, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: Evidence that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glaciers extended well into the piedmont plains is still identifiable in the alpine foreland as a system of well-preserved moraines. Glaciers are strongly controlled by temperature and precipitation, and therefore, they are excellent indicators of climate change. Here, we use a regional climate model (RCM) to investigate some of the physical processes sustaining Alpine glaciers during the last phase of the LGM during Greenland Stadial 2 at 21 ka. We find a predominance of convection during summer and increased southwesterly stratiform precipitation over the southern Alps when compared to pre-industrial (PI) conditions. This precipitation pattern, along with lower temperatures, determined summer snowfall extending to low elevations, with a consequent substantial drop of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), which is consistent with the estimated LGM glacier extent. Our RCM-based estimates of 21 ka ELA at the LGM yield excellent consistency with Alpine ELA reconstructions, further demonstrating the great potential of this technique for use in palaeoclimate studies.
Keywords: Quaternary, ice age, atmosphere, glaciers, climate change, the Alps
Published in DiRROS: 19.09.2023; Views: 387; Downloads: 126
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13. Local site conditions reduce interspecific differences in climate sensitivity between native and non-native pinesMarcin Miroslav Klisz, Radosław Puchałka, Marcin Jakubowski, M. Koprowski, Maksym Netsvetov, Yulia Prokopuk, Jernej Jevšenak, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: Two European pine species, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra, are experiencing dieback as a result of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. Recent species distribution models predicted shrinkage of ecological niches in the near future and shifted their habitat range towards the northeast. Consequently, P. sylvestris may contract its range and P. nigra may expand in Central Europe. To test whether native pine species have an advantage over introduced pine species in acclimation to a novel climate in Central Europe, we investigated the climate sensitivity and vitality of P. sylvestris, P. nigra and P. rigida. We sampled mature stands of each pine species at three sites in Central Europe, for which we determined climate–growth relationships: temporal stability of temperature and precipitation correlations with tree-ring width and resilience indices. Based on remote sensing data, we assessed differences in surface reflectance and photosynthetic activity obtained from the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our analyses revealed that the climate sensitivity and surface reflectance of pines are not due to their nativeness in Central Europe but better explained by local site conditions. The specificity and variability of drought events may determine both the homogeneous and diverse susceptibility of species to a negative water balance. Therefore, the character of future climatic extremes seems to be the key to understanding the acclimation of native and non-native pine species in Central Europe. Because our study do not provide evidence of the superiority of non-native pine species over P. sylvestris, and the potential impacts of introduced species on local habitats seem poorly understood in the face of climate change, we urge particular caution in introducing species with unrecognized invasive potential.
Keywords: Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus rigida, acclimation, climate sensitivity, drought resilience
Published in DiRROS: 18.09.2023; Views: 457; Downloads: 76
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14. The potential global distribution of an emerging forest pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, under a changing climateNikica Ogris, Rein Drenkhan, Petr Vahalík, Thomas L. Cech, Martin Mullett, Katherine Tubby, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Keywords: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Published in DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Views: 376; Downloads: 234
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15. Climate, host and geography shape insect and fungal communities of treesIva Franić, Eric Allan, Simone Prospero, Kalev Adamson, Fabio Attorre, Marie-Anne Auger-Rozenberg, Sylvie Augustin, Dimitrios N. Avtzis, Wim Baert, Marek Barta, Maarten De Groot, Barbara Piškur, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: Non-native pests, climate change, and their interactions are likely to alter relationships between trees and tree-associated organisms with consequences for forest health. To understand and predict such changes, factors structuring tree-associated communities need to be determined. Here, we analysed the data consisting of records of insects and fungi collected from dormant twigs from 155 tree species at 51 botanical gardens or arboreta in 32 countries. Generalized dissimilarity models revealed similar relative importance of studied climatic, host-related and geographic factors on differences in tree-associated communities. Mean annual temperature, phylogenetic distance between hosts and geographic distance between locations were the major drivers of dissimilarities. The increasing importance of high temperatures on differences in studied communities indicate that climate change could affect tree-associated organisms directly and indirectly through host range shifts. Insect and fungal communities were more similar between closely related vs. distant hosts suggesting that host range shifts may facilitate the emergence of new pests. Moreover, dissimilarities among tree-associated communities increased with geographic distance indicating that human-mediated transport may serve as a pathway of the introductions of new pests. The results of this study highlight the need to limit the establishment of tree pests and increase the resilience of forest ecosystems to changes in climate.
Keywords: mycology, insects, fungus, community of organisms, influence of the host, influence of climate, influence of geography
Published in DiRROS: 19.07.2023; Views: 366; Downloads: 209
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16. Radial increment of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Is under a strong impact of climate in the continental biogeographical region of CroatiaTom Levanič, Damir Ugarković, Ivan Seletković, Mladen Ognjenović, Mia Marušić, Robert Bogdanić, Nenad Potočić, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is an important component of forests in the alpine and continental biogeographical regions of Croatia. This study aimed to (1) analyze the long-term response of beech to climate, (2) identify potentially critical climatic conditions that could negatively affect the radial increment (RI) and vitality of beech, and (3) evaluate differences in the response of beech between the two biogeographical regions in Croatia. We used the 16 × 16 km Croatian ICP Forests Level 1 network. On a total of 25 plots, we cored between 5 and 24 trees for dendrochronological analysis. Tree-ring widths (TRW) were measured and standardized using cubic spline. TRW chronologies for the two regions were calculated and correlated to the temperature and precipitation data and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using bootstrapped correlations. Continental region precipitation from April to August and alpine region precipitation from June to August were significantly important for RI. Temperature was less important for RI than precipitation in both regions, but the importance of the negative impact of above-average temperatures in the continental region and the positive impact of above-average precipitation in the alpine region has increased over the last two decades. A comparison with the 3-month SPEI confirmed the significant influence of high temperatures and the lack of precipitation in August on the RI of beech trees in both regions.
Keywords: climate change, tree growth, forest productivity, drought, European beech
Published in DiRROS: 28.06.2023; Views: 458; Downloads: 228
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17. Growth response of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Silver Fir (Abies alba Mill.) to climate factors along the Carpathian massivePia Caroline Adamič, Tom Levanič, Mihail Hanzu, Matjaž Čater, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: European forests are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change and more frequent droughts. The likely responses of species to climate change will vary, affecting their competitiveness, their existence, and consequently, forest management decisions and measures. We determined the influence of climate on the radial growth of European beech and silver fir along the Carpathians to find similarities between the two species and the main differences. Along the Carpathian Mountains, seven sites with mature fir–beech stands above 800 m above sea level were selected and analyzed. Our study confirmed different responses depending on species and location. A more pronounced response of tree growth to climate was observed on the eastern side of the Carpathians, while it was less expressed or even absent on the southern sites. Both beech and fir show better radial growth with higher precipitation in July and slower growth with higher average and maximum temperatures in June of the current year. Fir demonstrates a positive correlation between radial growth and temperature in winter, while beech demonstrates a negative correlation between radial growth and temperature in summer. In the 1951–1960 decade, the average tree ring widths in fir and beech were largest at the southern sites compared to the other sites, but since 2011, the southern sites have had the lowest increase while northern sites have had the largest. Both species respond differently to climate and are likely to follow different competitive paths in the future.
Keywords: climate change, dendrochronology, radial growth response, meteorological parameters
Published in DiRROS: 28.06.2023; Views: 480; Downloads: 313
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18. Prediction of actual from climatic precipitation with data collected from northern Poland : a statistical approachJacek Barańczuk, Martina Zeleňáková, Hany F. Abd-Elhamid, Katarzyna Barańczuk, Salem S. Gharbia, Peter Blišťan, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, Peter Kumer, Włodzimierz Golus, Maciej Markowski, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: Water is a basic element of the natural environment and the most important component in human water management. Rainfall is the main source of water. Therefore, determining the amount of precipitation reaching the ground using sensors is crucial information. Precise precipitation data are necessary for better modeling quality, as the observation data from weather stations are used as basics for weather model assessment. The authors compared precipitation from the Hellmann rain gauge (climatic precipitation, 1.0 m above the ground surface) measured throughout the year and the GGI 3000 rain gauge (actual precipitation on the ground level) measured from April to October. Measurement sequences from the years 2011–2020 were considered. The data for analysis were obtained from a weather station located in northern Poland. The authors analyzed the relationships between data from the two sensors. A comparative study showed that the measurements of actual precipitation are higher and there are strong relationships between actual and climatic rainfall (r = 0.99). Using the introduced coefficient it is possible to determine the full–year actual precipitation with high probability, taking into account the precipitation with a correction from the winter half-year and the actual precipitation from the summer half-year, which is of great importance in the calculation of the water balance.
Keywords: natural environment, climate change, precipitation, prediction, statistics, analysis, Poland
Published in DiRROS: 25.01.2023; Views: 408; Downloads: 251
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19. Understanding interdisciplinarity through Adriatic maricultures and climate change adaptation : Elektronski virCécil J. W. Meulenberg, Shé Mackenzie Hawke, Irina Moira Cavaion, Peter Kumer, Blaž Lenarčič, 2022, original scientific article Abstract: The consequences of accelerating climate change for land and sea biodiversity require innovative approaches to research. Interdisciplinary re-search serves to connect natural science, socialsciences and humanities, tech-nology, and engineering, as well as welcoming citizen scientists into the re-search environment. Interdisciplinarity is part of a developing innovative ap-proach to research that emphasizes co-evolution of traditional sciences, with citizen science and participatory engagement in the realisation of research goals and the promotion of climate change mitigation strategies. In this article, through the example of shellfish maricultures we illustrate interdisciplinarity, particularlydemonstrating how marine biology, health and well-being, social science and cultural geography come together at the interface between nature, culture, and climate change mitigation strategies.
Keywords: interdisciplinarity, maricultures, eco-linguistics, climate change, citizen science, ecosystem services
Published in DiRROS: 28.09.2022; Views: 579; Downloads: 292
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20. Handbook for non native tree species in the urban spaceAjša Alagić, Aleksander Marinšek, Ana Dolenc, Andrey Krasovskiy, Anica Simčič, Anja M. Bindewald, Anja Müller-Meißner, Bénédicte Baxerres, Claudia Cocozza, Debojyoti Chakraborty, Janez Kermavnar, Lado Kutnar, Simon Zidar, Tina Trampuš, Živa Bobič Červek, 2022, dictionary, encyclopaedia, lexicon, manual, atlas, map Keywords: non-native tree species, Alps, invasive alien species, forest management, urbanspace, climate changes
Published in DiRROS: 12.08.2022; Views: 572; Downloads: 205
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