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Abstract: Introduction: Herbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes. Methods: By using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5). Results: Overall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa. Discussion: Our findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Keywords: species distribution modelling, global warming, range shift, climatic niche, biogeography, Europe
Published in DiRROS: 29.11.2023; Views: 454; Downloads: 239
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Abstract: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Keywords: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Published in DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Views: 517; Downloads: 301
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Abstract: Taxonomy of Pseudohydnum gelatinosum and its sister taxa is revised via morphological data and a four-gene dataset (ITS, nc LSU rDNA, TEF1, RPB1). Identity of P. gelatinosum and Tremellodon pusillus is re-established based on newly collected and sequenced material from their type localities. Pseudohydnum alienum from Europe; P. umbrosum from temperate East Asia; P. cystidiatum, P. meridianum, and P. placibile from Vietnam; and P. omnipavum from North America are described as new to science; P. translucens and P. brunneiceps from East Asia are redescribed. Most Pseudohydnum collections from North America belong to P. gelatinosum ssp. pusillum. A significant divergence of TEF1 sequences in P. gelatinosum is discussed.
Keywords: Heterobasidiomycetes, phylogeny, new species, new typifcations
Published in DiRROS: 24.05.2023; Views: 629; Downloads: 333
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Abstract: Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) has been at the centre of controversy for many decades. Recent evidence of its profound disturbance-induced damage and consequent stock depletions across forest landscapes in Europe has reinforced doubts regarding the sustainability and prospects of this tree species in the future. Like many other European countries, Slovenia has experienced significant Norway spruce mortality and a decrease in growing stock primarily as the result of several disturbance agents (bark beetle outbreaks, an ice storm, windthrows). We investigated a countrywide spruce growing stock decline based on data between 2010 and 2018. Particular focus was placed on identifying the main ecological drivers of this decline, namely geological conditions, climatic parameters, soil attributes, topographic factors and forest stand characteristics. The effects of potential predictors on the relative change (%) in spruce volume (m3 ha-1) during the period 2010-2018 were analysed with Generalized Additive Models. Based on a national dataset including forest compartments (n = 6355) with a spruce growing stock decline > 10%, we found mixed support for ecology-based hypotheses. While spruce decline responded to bedrock type as predicted (i.e., greater relative decline in carbonate compared to silicate compartments), higher forest naturalness (preservation of tree species composition) was not associated with a lower decline. Spruce decline was amplified by higher potential evapotranspiration and soil clay content but showed a strong negative relationship with spruce proportion in the year 2010. General trends along the gradients of other selected predictors (stoniness/rockiness and heat load index) were less pronounced. The results suggest that most of these ecological predictors interact with geology and forest naturalness in affecting Norway spruce decline. Our analysis reveals that bedrock type can play an important role due to its mitigating effects. However, forest naturalness is of secondary significance as intensified large-scale forest disturbances likely override its buffering potential.
Keywords: Norway Spruce, bark beetle outbreaks, ice storm, soil-geology, relationship, tree species composition, Slovenia
Published in DiRROS: 05.04.2023; Views: 949; Downloads: 316
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Abstract: Urban and peri-urban forests are important habitats for maintaining biodiversity in cities. In this paper, we report a method for using hoverflies as biodiversity indicators in urban forest habitats. As a case study, forest habitats in three peri-urban and urban forests were assessed and compared to rural forests in Slovenia. Rožnik (Ljubljana) was chosen as the urban forest site, Mestni log (Ljubljana) and Brdo (Kranj) were chosen as the peri-urban sites, and eight sites were chosen in rural forests in different ecoregions in Slovenia. Forest hoverfly species richness and the species composition of different biological traits were compared between the peri-urban forests, urban forest and rural forest sites. In addition, species richness was assessed for changes in response to weather conditions between years. The number of species with the investigated traits in the urban and peri-urban forests was within the range of the number of species observed in the rural forests. The number of saproxylic species was higher in the urban forest but lower in the peri-urban forests compared to the rural forests. The proportions of species with different feeding modes and different development times were similar between the peri-urban, urban and rural forests. The proportions of species with development times of less than 2 months or more than 1 year and of predatory species were similar in the urban and peri-urban forests but higher in the rural forests. The species composition of the other biological traits differed between the peri-urban, urban and rural forests. Species richness and abundance displayed large differences in phenological patterns between 2012 and 2013; these differences are related to differences in the minimum temperature for these years. The results are discussed in relation to forest management in urban forests, the usefulness of hoverflies as a biodiversity indicator and possible extrapolation to other species groups.
Keywords: biological traits, ecosystem services, forest management, saproxylic species, Syrphidae, urban forest
Published in DiRROS: 30.12.2022; Views: 1841; Downloads: 823
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