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Query: "author" (Marinšek Aleksander) .

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1.
Importance of habitat context in modelling risk maps for two established invasive alien plant species : the case of Ailanthus altissima and Phytolacca americana in Slovenia (Europe)
Maarten De Groot, Erika Kozamernik, Janez Kermavnar, Marija Kolšek, Aleksander Marinšek, Andreja Nève Repe, Lado Kutnar, 2024, original scientific article

Abstract: Forests are important ecosystems that face threats from climate change and global environmental shifts, with invasive alien plant species being a significant concern. Some of these invasive species have already become established, while others are in the process of naturalisation. Although forests are a relatively stable ecosystem, extreme weather events increase their vulnerability to change, and clearings left after natural disturbances are particularly susceptible to invasion by alien plant species (IAPS). We created risk maps of two species that have spread rapidly in the last decade: American pokeweed (Phytolacca americana) and the tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima). We prepared a generalised linear model based on the occurrence data collected within the LIFE ARTEMIS project. Eleven environmental variables were used to determine habitat characteristics. We constructed two models for each species: one covering the entirety of Slovenia and the other specifically for the forested areas in Slovenia, with the latter incorporating forest-specific variables (such as forest sanitation felling and monocultures). We observed the presence of both species at lower altitudes and in close proximity to water sources. American pokeweed tends to occur nearer to railways, while the presence of the tree of heaven is associated with areas lacking carbonate parent material and influenced by land use patterns. In forested areas, the occurrence of American pokeweed is influenced by forest habitat characteristics, such as disturbances caused by extreme weather events or the prevalence of Norway spruce monocultures. In contrast, the occurrence of the tree of heaven is influenced by more general environmental variables, such as altitude and proximity to railways. Consequently, we have generated risk maps for the entirety of Slovenia and separately for forested areas, both of which indicate similar levels of risk, particularly for the tree of heaven. The risk map for American pokeweed highlights numerous vulnerable areas, especially forest edges, which are highly susceptible to invasion. Furthermore, there is a higher likelihood of this species occurring in areas that have undergone sanitation felling. This study suggests that the production of risk maps of IAPS could be improved by focussing on habitat types and taking into account habitat-specific variables. This approach could enhance the early detection and management of these invasive species.
Keywords: American pokeweed, tree of heaven, species distribution modelling, forests, forest disturbance, habitat suitability
Published in DiRROS: 26.03.2024; Views: 33; Downloads: 14
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Transnational strategy on the sustainable management and responsible use of non-native trees in the Alpine Space
Katharina Lapin, Anja M. Bindewald, Giuseppe Brundu, Aleksander Marinšek, Debojyoti Chakraborty, Janine Oettel, Janine Oettel, Konrad Heino, Nicola La Porta, Ajša Alagić, 2023, review article

Abstract: Non-native tree species – defined as those species intentionally or unintentionally introduced by humans – have long been a part of the Alpine Space, providing numerous benefits, but also posing a potential threat to native biodiversity and related ecosystem services. Compared to the urban space where non-native trees comprise most tree species, the number of non-native trees in forests and plantations is relatively low. To evaluate potential risks and benefits of non-native trees in the Alpine Space, a transnational strategy for the responsible use and management of non-native trees is needed. The goals of the strategy are to tailor management practices for a sustainable and responsible use or admixture of non-native trees, to reduce the risks connected with the invasive potential of some non-native tree species, to help forests and urban areas to adapt to climate change, and to improve coordination and cooperation regarding best practices between different regions of the Alpine Space. A proposal was developed in a four-step process including expert-based assessment, stakeholder mapping, an extensive data review, and a public consultation. For implementing the strategy fully, strong collaboration among diverse stakeholders is anticipated and robust governance and an adequate long-term and fair funding scheme is needed.
Keywords: adaptive forest management, non-native tree species, Alpine Space, biosecurity, green infrastructure
Published in DiRROS: 19.01.2024; Views: 173; Downloads: 93
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Vrednotenje vplivov DPN za VE Paški Kozjak na stanje gozda in gozdarstva
Andreja Ferreira, 2023, treatise, preliminary study, study

Keywords: vrednotenje, vplivi, državni prostorski načrt, vetrna elektrarna, gozdovi, gozdarstvo, Paški Kozjak
Published in DiRROS: 03.01.2024; Views: 186; Downloads: 0

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More losses than gains? : Distribution models predict species-specific shifts in climatic suitability for European beech forest herbs under climate change
Janez Kermavnar, Lado Kutnar, Aleksander Marinšek, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: Introduction: Herbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes. Methods: By using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5). Results: Overall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa. Discussion: Our findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Keywords: species distribution modelling, global warming, range shift, climatic niche, biogeography, Europe
Published in DiRROS: 29.11.2023; Views: 213; Downloads: 105
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Causes and consequences of large-scale windthrow on the development of fir-beech forests in the Dinaric mountains
Matjaž Čater, Ajša Alagić, Mitja Ferlan, Jernej Jevšenak, Aleksander Marinšek, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: We investigated several aspects of windthrow that are relevant to our understanding and management of forest ecosystems. As an example, we used an extreme event in December 2017, when the strongest storm in recent history occurred in the Slovenian Dinaric High Karst. We examined influential factors such as soil properties, wind speed, precipitation and ecological consequences for the affected forests. Soil properties were measured around standing and fallen silver fir trees at all three research sites. Tree species composition in the regeneration was observed on plots with chemical and acoustic ungulate deterrents and on control plots without deterrents. Economic estimates of yield loss due to damage were calculated at the national level. A model of the potential threat from windthrow was also developed based on data collected from windthrow events and meteorological data over the past 20 years. Our results indicate that soil depth and mineral fraction depth were similar at sites with and without damaged trees and were not the determining factors for tree toppling. Plots with acoustic deterrents showed the most effective regeneration development, the least decline in silver fir and the greatest increase in noble hardwood seedlings, while plots with chemical deterrents showed the least browsing damage. The estimated economic loss of €16.1 million is 6.6% less than the harvest under normal conditions. The economic loss was relatively low due to the nature of the storm, with the predominant type of damage being uprooted trees with no damaged trunks. The windthrow hazard model revealed that a large number of consecutive events with strong winds in each section weakened the stand, which was subsequently knocked down during the next extreme wind and rainfall event.
Keywords: natural forest regeneration, windthrow, economic loss, browsing, ungulate deterrents, forest soil properties, potential threat model
Published in DiRROS: 27.06.2023; Views: 1060; Downloads: 505
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The effects of large-scale forest disturbances on hydrology : an overview with special emphasis on karst aquifer systems
Urša Vilhar, Janez Kermavnar, Erika Kozamernik, Metka Petrič, Nataša Ravbar, 2022, original scientific article

Abstract: Large-scale forest disturbances (LSFD) are an essential component of forest ecosystem dynamics. The effects of rapid loss of forest cover and other changes in forest ecosystems are inextricably linked to hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration, soil and recharge processes. Among all hydrogeological systems, karst aquifers are important because of their exceptionally rich and unique biodiversity, biomass, and groundwater resources. At the same time, they are characterized by specific hydrological processes that make them highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Therefore, this study paid special attention to the effects of LSFD on karst hydrology. Using the PRISMA checklist, a thorough literature review of studies published between 2001 and 2020 was compiled into a comprehensive matrix dataset. In addition, an initial assessment of the global and regional distribution of forests on carbonate rocks was made based on publicly available geodatabases of forests and karst aquifers. The compiled information provides the first global overview of hydrological processes affected by LSFD, and identifies important knowledge gaps and future research challenges. The matrix dataset contained 117 full-text articles with a total of 160 case studies. Most publications were from 2011 to 2017, with more than half of the studies at the plot level and more than one-third at the catchment level. Studies on the effects of fires and pest and diseases infestations predominated. However, no articles were found on the effects of ice storms on hydrology in general or on the effects of pest and disease infestations on hydrology in karst areas. Of the 45.6 M km2 of forested land worldwide, 6.3 M km2 or 13.9% of all forests are underlain by carbonate rocks. Carbonate rocks cover about 15% of the land surface, which means that 31.3% of the world's karst aquifers are covered by forest. 29% of all case studies were conducted in karst areas, which is a high proportion compared to the proportion of forests in karst areas. However, these studies are unevenly distributed geographically. Most studies were conducted at the plot level, and only 21% of studies focused on natural LSFD, so forest management and land use change studies predominated. Although studies on the effects of LSFD on evapotranspiration processes between vegetation, air and soil are fairly well represented, infiltration and recharge processes in karst areas remain poorly understood and knowledge is lacking, particularly on groundwater flow and related hydrological processes. Regional studies and impacts on groundwater resources are also insufficient. The results indicate an urgent need for an integrated holistic interdisciplinary approach and a comprehensive understanding of the individual influencing factors, which would allow more accurate modelling of hydrological processes in forested karst aquifers.
Keywords: natural disasters, climatic changes, evapotranspiration, hydrology, karst aquifers
Published in DiRROS: 19.05.2023; Views: 317; Downloads: 186
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