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12. Preverjanje verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2023Nikica Ogris, Maarten De Groot, 2023, kratki znanstveni prispevek Povzetek: Preverili smo zanesljivost verjetnostne napovedi sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov v Sloveniji v 2023. Verjetnostni model za napoved sanitarnega poseka smreke zaradi podlubnikov je potrdil visoko zanesljivost (AUC modela = 0,89, AUC napovedi = 0,84). Ugotovili smo optimalni prag za verjetnost sanitarnega poseka, ki ga bomo lahko uporabili pri naslednjih napovedih za bolj jasno določitev območij, kjer se bodo potencialno pojavila žarišča smrekovih podlubnikov. Napoved za leto 2023 smo naredili s pragom 0,30, ki pa se je izkazal za prenizkega, saj je bila kar tretjina modelskih celic lažno pozitivnih. Optimalen prag za verjetnostni model v letu 2023 je bil 0,40. Povprečen optimalen prag v obdobju 2020–2023 je bil 0,45, ki ga predlagamo za izdelavo verjetnostne napovedi v naslednjem letu.
Ključne besede: gozdovi, varstvo gozdov, navadna smreka, Picea abies, sanitarni posek, napoved, ogroženost, model, validacija, zmogljivost, zanesljivost, točnost, natančnost, AUC, občutljivost, specifičnost
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13. Using the IUCN environmental impact classification for alien taxa to inform decision-makingSabrina Kumschick, Sandro Bertolino, Tim M. Blackburn, Giuseppe Brundu, Katie E. Costello, Maarten De Groot, Thomas Evans, Belinda Gallardo, Piero Genovesi, Tanushri Govender, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species’ impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.
Ključne besede: biological invasions, evidence synthesis, impact assessment, managing invasive species, precautionary principle
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.12.2023; Ogledov: 247; Prenosov: 133
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15. Infestation intensity by the invasive oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata (Say) in mixed and pure oak standsGernot Hoch, Alex Stemmelen, Eötvös Csaba Béla, Werner Hinterstoisser, Miran Lanšćak, Srđan Stojnić, Máté Tóth, Marjana Westergren, Simon Zidar, Milica Zlatković, Nikola Zoric, Maarten De Groot, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek Povzetek: There has been accumulating evidence for effects of tree species composition on herbivory with many examples of lower damage by specialist feeders in tree species rich forests. In a joint study in five Central and Southeastern European countries, we studied the effect of tree species richness on infestation intensity of the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata (Say) (Heteroptera, Tingidae), an invasive pest on oak trees that has spread rapidly across the Balkan Peninsula and Central Europe. Intensity of infestation by C. arcuata on oaks was assessed on three or four study plots with high (pure stands) and three or four plots with low percentage of oak (mixed stands) in each country. Ordinal regression analysis showed that intensity of infestation of trees by C. arcuata differed between countries; no significant effect of stand type (mixed or pure) on infestation levels was detected. When analysing the percentage of trees in the highest infestation class, stand type had a significant effect with more intensive infestation in pure stands. We conclude that mixed stands will not prevent severe infestation but may help mitigating the impact of established C. arcuata populations.
Ključne besede: associational resistance, Corythucha arcuata, diversity, host tree concentration, invasive forest pest
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 14.11.2023; Ogledov: 289; Prenosov: 174
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