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Povzetek: With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021–2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952–2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38–0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%–18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%–21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%–24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (−10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
Ključne besede: climate change, climate sensitivity, drought, Fagus sylvatica, growth projection, leading edge, trailing edge, tree rings
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 10.02.2025; Ogledov: 810; Prenosov: 524
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Ključne besede: palaeoclimate, climate proxy, glaciers, pollen, tree-rings, sediment, speleothems, historical data
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 21.06.2024; Ogledov: 1342; Prenosov: 507
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Povzetek: Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) is among the most sensitive coniferous species to ongoing climate change. However, previous studies on its growth response to increasing temperatures have yielded contrasting results (from stimulation to suppression), suggesting highly site-specific responses. Here, we present the first study that applies two independent approaches, i.e. the nonlinear, process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model and linear daily response functions. Data were collected at twelve sites in Slovenia differing in climate regimes and ranging elevation between 170 and 1300 m a.s.l. VS model results revealed that drier Norway spruce sites at lower elevations are mostly moisture limited, while moist high-elevation sites are generally more temperature limited. Daily response functions match well the pattern of growth-limiting factors from the VS model and further explain the effect of climate on radial growth: prevailing growth-limiting factors correspond to the climate variable with higher correlations. Radial growth correlates negatively with rising summer temperature and positively with higher spring precipitation. The opposite response was observed for the wettest site at the highest elevation, which positively reacts to increased summer temperature and will most likely benefit from a warming climate. For all other sites, the future radial growth of Norway spruce largely depends on the balance between spring precipitation and summer temperature.
Ključne besede: Vaganov-Shashkin model, climate-growth correlations, tree rings, process-based modelling, dendroTools, dendroclimatology
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 21.10.2020; Ogledov: 2258; Prenosov: 1806
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Povzetek: An extended European tree-ring network was compiled from various sources of tree-ring data from Europe, northern Africa and western Asia. A total of 1860 tree-ring chronologies were used to compare correlation coefficients calculated with aggregated day-wise and month-wise mean temperature, sums of precipitation and standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For the daily approach, climate data were aggregated over periods ranging from 21 to 365 days. Absolute correlations calculated with day-wise aggregated climate data were on average higher by 0.060 (temperature data), 0.076 (precipitation data) and 0.075 (SPEI data). Bootstrapped correlations are computationally expensive and were therefore calculated on a 69.4% subset of the data. Bootstrapped correlations indicated statistically significant differences between the daily and monthly approach in approximately 1% of examples. A comparison of time windows used for calculations of correlations revealed slightly later onset and earlier ending day of the year for the daily approach, while the largest differences between the two approaches arise from window lengths: Correlations calculated with day-wise aggregated climate data were calculated using fewer days than the monthly approach. Differences in the onset and ending dates of periods for the daily and monthly approaches were greater for precipitation and SPEI data than for temperature data.
Ključne besede: tree rings, dendroclimatology, tree-ring network, daily climate data, climate-growth relationships, dendroTools
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 21.08.2019; Ogledov: 3424; Prenosov: 1863
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