Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st centuryJernej Jež
, Mojca Dolinar
, Anže Medved
, Špela Kumelj
, Gašper Bokal
, Mateja Jemec Auflič
Povzetek: Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.
Ključne besede: climate change, landslides, models, hazard, prediction
DiRROS - Objavljeno: 09.03.2022; Ogledov: 146; Prenosov: 42
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Forewarned is forearmed : harmonized approaches for early detection of potentially invasive pests and pathogens in sentinel plantingsCarmen Morales-Rodríguez
, Sten Anslan
, Marie-Anne Auger-Rozenberg
, Sylvie Augustin
, Yuri Baranchikov
, Amani Bellahirech
, Daiva Burokiene
, Dovile Čepukoit
, Ejup Çota
, Kateryna Davydenko
, Maarten De Groot
Povzetek: The number of invasive alien pest and pathogen species affecting ecosystem functioning, human health and economies has increased dramatically over the last decades. Discoveries of invasive pests and pathogens previously unknown to science or with unknown host associations yet damaging on novel hosts highlights the necessity of developing novel tools to predict their appearance in hitherto naïve environments. The use of sentinel plant systems is a promising tool to improve the detection of pests and pathogens before introduction and to provide valuable information for the development of preventative measures to minimize economic or environmental impacts. Though sentinel plantings have been established and studied during the last decade, there still remains a great need for guidance on which tools and protocols to put into practice in order to make assessments accurate and reliable. The sampling and diagnostic protocols chosen should enable as much information as possible about potential damaging agents and species identification. Consistency and comparison of results are based on the adoption of common procedures for sampling design and sample processing. In this paper, we suggest harmonized procedures that should be used in sentinel planting surveys for effective sampling and identification of potential pests and pathogens. We also review the benefits and limitations of various diagnostic methods for early detection in sentinel systems, and the feasibility of the results obtained supporting National Plant Protection Organizations in pest and commodity risk analysis.
Ključne besede: alien invasive pests, alien invasive pathogens, commodity risk analysis, early warning, sampling techniques, sentinel plants, pest risk analysis, prediction
DiRROS - Objavljeno: 01.07.2019; Ogledov: 1654; Prenosov: 900
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Combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model for the prediction of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce because of bark beetlesMaarten De Groot
, Nikica Ogris
Povzetek: The European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is an eruptive forest pest that has caused a great deal of damage in the last decades because of increasing climatic extremes. In order to effectively manage outbreaks of this pest, it is important to predict where they will occur in the future. In this study we developed a predictive model of the sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) because of bark beetles. We used a time series of sanitary felling because of bark beetles from 1996 to 2020 in Slovenia. For the explanatory variables, we used soil, site, climate, geographic, and tree damage data from the previous year. The model showed that sanitary felling is negatively correlated with slope, soil depth, soil cation exchange capacity, and Standard Precipitation Index (less sanitary felling in wet years). On the other hand, soil base saturation percentage, temperature, sanitary felling because of bark beetles from the previous year, sanitary felling because of other abiotic factors from the previous year, and the amount of spruce were positively correlated with the sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles. The model had an R2 of 0.38. A prediction was performed for 2021 combining an occurrence model and a quantitative model. The model can be used to predict the amount of sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to bark beetles and to refine the risk map for the next year, which can be used for forest management planning and economic loss predictions.
Ključne besede: sanitary felling, prediction, Ips typographus, Picea abies, Slovenia, forecasting, insect outbreak forest pest
DiRROS - Objavljeno: 21.02.2022; Ogledov: 103; Prenosov: 73
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