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Povzetek: With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021–2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952–2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38–0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%–18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%–21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%–24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (−10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
Ključne besede: climate change, climate sensitivity, drought, Fagus sylvatica, growth projection, leading edge, trailing edge, tree rings
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 10.02.2025; Ogledov: 771; Prenosov: 494
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Povzetek: Two European pine species, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra, are experiencing dieback as a result of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. Recent species distribution models predicted shrinkage of ecological niches in the near future and shifted their habitat range towards the northeast. Consequently, P. sylvestris may contract its range and P. nigra may expand in Central Europe. To test whether native pine species have an advantage over introduced pine species in acclimation to a novel climate in Central Europe, we investigated the climate sensitivity and vitality of P. sylvestris, P. nigra and P. rigida. We sampled mature stands of each pine species at three sites in Central Europe, for which we determined climate–growth relationships: temporal stability of temperature and precipitation correlations with tree-ring width and resilience indices. Based on remote sensing data, we assessed differences in surface reflectance and photosynthetic activity obtained from the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our analyses revealed that the climate sensitivity and surface reflectance of pines are not due to their nativeness in Central Europe but better explained by local site conditions. The specificity and variability of drought events may determine both the homogeneous and diverse susceptibility of species to a negative water balance. Therefore, the character of future climatic extremes seems to be the key to understanding the acclimation of native and non-native pine species in Central Europe. Because our study do not provide evidence of the superiority of non-native pine species over P. sylvestris, and the potential impacts of introduced species on local habitats seem poorly understood in the face of climate change, we urge particular caution in introducing species with unrecognized invasive potential.
Ključne besede: Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus rigida, acclimation, climate sensitivity, drought resilience
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 18.09.2023; Ogledov: 1919; Prenosov: 555
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