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1.
European genetic resources conservation in a rapidly changing world : three existential challenges for the crop, forest and animal domains in the 21st century
François Lefévre, Danijela Bojkovski, Magda Bou Dagher Kharrat, Michele Bozzano, Eléonore Charvolin-Lemaire, Sipke Joost Hiemstra, Hojka Kraigher, Denis Laloë, Gwendal Restoux, Suzanne Sharrock, Enrico Sturaro, Theo J. L. van Hintum, Marjana Westergren, Nigel Maxted, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Even though genetic resources represent a fundamental reservoir of options to achieve sustainable development goals in a changing world, they are overlooked in the policy agenda and severely threatened. The conservation of genetic resources relies on complementary in situ and ex situ approaches appropriately designed for each type of organism. Environmental and socioeconomic changes raise new challenges and opportunities for sustainable use and conservation of genetic resources. Aiming at a more integrated and adaptive approach, European scientists and genetic resources managers with long experience in the agricultural crop, animal and forestry domains joined their expertise to address three critical challenges: (1) how to adapt genetic resources conservation strategies to climate change, (2) how to promote in situ conservation strategies and (3) how can genetic resources conservation contribute to and benefit from agroecological systems. We present here 31 evidence-based statements and 88 key recommendations elaborated around these questions for policymakers, conservation actors and the scientific community. We anticipate that stakeholders in other genetic resources domains and biodiversity conservation actors across the globe will have interest in these crosscutting and multi-actor recommendations, which support several biodiversity conservation policies and practices.
Ključne besede: agroecology, climate change, in situ conservation, multi-actor engagement, policy
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 11.03.2024; Ogledov: 83; Prenosov: 40
.pdf Celotno besedilo (666,43 KB)
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A new approach towards a user-driven coastal climate service to enhance climate resilience in European cities
Roberta Paranunzio, Iulia Anton, Elisa Adirosi, Tasneem Ahmed, Luca Baldini, Carlo Brandini, Filippo Giannetti, Cécil J. W. Meulenberg, Alberto Ortolani, Francesco Pilla, 2024, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Coastal climate services play a crucial role in developing customised climate information for diverse end-users and stakeholders. To build climate-resilient societies, decision-makers should be empowered through easy access to powerful tools that enable timely adaptation to future and ongoing hazards. For this reason, fit-for-purpose climate services are needed to conduct accurate historical characterisation and projections for interpretative studies on climate- and water-related risks at the local coastal scale. The EU-funded SCORE project (Smart Control of Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities) utilises climate and marine services for the development of smart technologies that support nature-based solutions to address specific concerns, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding due to extreme weather events. As part of the SCORE project, decision-makers will be able to address climate change-related coastal effects in their own cities through novel participatory approaches (Coastal City Living Labs—CCLLs). As part of this framework, this work (i) discusses the main requirements for the identification of fit-for-purpose coastal climate services for local-scale impact studies in European coastal cities based on CCLL requests and prior knowledge and (ii) provides relevant parameters and features that fulfil the users’ needs.
Ključne besede: ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate change adaptation, coastal climate service, urban areas, climate resilience, coastal hazards
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 05.01.2024; Ogledov: 167; Prenosov: 67
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,62 MB)
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Low but significant evolutionary potential for growth, phenology and reproduction traits in European beech
Marjana Westergren, Juliette Archambeau, Marko Bajc, Rok Damjanić, Adélaïde Theraroz, Hojka Kraigher, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio, Santiago C. González-Martínez, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Local survival of forest tree populations under climate change depends on existing genetic variation and their adaptability to changing environments. Responses to selection were studied in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) under field conditions. A total of 1087 adult trees, seeds, 1-year-old seedlings and established multiyear saplings were genotyped with 16 nuSSRs. Adult trees were assessed for phenotypic traits related to growth, phenology and reproduction. Parentage and paternity analyses were used to estimate effective female and male fecundity as a proxy of fitness and showed that few parents contributed to successful regeneration. Selection gradients were estimated from the relationship between traits and fecundity, while heritability and evolvability were estimated using mixed models and the breeder's equation. Larger trees bearing more fruit and early male flowering had higher total fecundity, while trees with longer growth season had lower total fecundity (directional selection). Stabilizing selection on spring phenology was found for female fecundity, highlighting the role of late frosts as a selection driver. Selection gradients for other traits varied between measurement years and the offspring cohort used to estimate parental fecundity. Compared to other studies in natural populations, we found low to moderate heritability and evolvability for most traits. Response to selection was higher for growth than for budburst, leaf senescence or reproduction traits, reflecting more consistent selection gradients across years and sex functions, and higher phenotypic variability in the population. Our study provides empirical evidence suggesting that populations of long-lived organisms such as forest trees can adapt locally, even at short-time scales.
Ključne besede: climate change, Fagus sylvatica, heritability, in situ adaptation, response to selection, selection gradients
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 12.12.2023; Ogledov: 168; Prenosov: 74
.pdf Celotno besedilo (6,82 MB)
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Forest commons responded efficiently - do we understand why?
Nevenka Bogataj, Janez Krč, 2023, objavljeni znanstveni prispevek na konferenci

Ključne besede: harvesting, natural disturbances, climate change effects, forest management, Slovenia
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 06.10.2023; Ogledov: 193; Prenosov: 76
.pdf Celotno besedilo (116,68 KB)

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Family forestry issues in climate change mitigation contract policies
Jussi Leppänen, Emmi Haltia, 2023, objavljeni znanstveni prispevek na konferenci

Ključne besede: family forestry, climate change mitigation, contracts, choice experiment, informations, intergenerationality
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 06.10.2023; Ogledov: 206; Prenosov: 102
.pdf Celotno besedilo (90,15 KB)

8.
Atmosphere–cryosphere interactions during the last phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) in the European Alps
Costanza Del Gobbo, Renato R. Colucci, Giovanni Monegato, Manja Žebre, Filippo Giorgi, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Evidence that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glaciers extended well into the piedmont plains is still identifiable in the alpine foreland as a system of well-preserved moraines. Glaciers are strongly controlled by temperature and precipitation, and therefore, they are excellent indicators of climate change. Here, we use a regional climate model (RCM) to investigate some of the physical processes sustaining Alpine glaciers during the last phase of the LGM during Greenland Stadial 2 at 21 ka. We find a predominance of convection during summer and increased southwesterly stratiform precipitation over the southern Alps when compared to pre-industrial (PI) conditions. This precipitation pattern, along with lower temperatures, determined summer snowfall extending to low elevations, with a consequent substantial drop of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), which is consistent with the estimated LGM glacier extent. Our RCM-based estimates of 21 ka ELA at the LGM yield excellent consistency with Alpine ELA reconstructions, further demonstrating the great potential of this technique for use in palaeoclimate studies.
Ključne besede: Quaternary, ice age, atmosphere, glaciers, climate change, the Alps
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 19.09.2023; Ogledov: 304; Prenosov: 109
.pdf Celotno besedilo (10,56 MB)

9.
Local site conditions reduce interspecific differences in climate sensitivity between native and non-native pines
Marcin Miroslav Klisz, Radosław Puchałka, Marcin Jakubowski, M. Koprowski, Maksym Netsvetov, Yulia Prokopuk, Jernej Jevšenak, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Two European pine species, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra, are experiencing dieback as a result of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. Recent species distribution models predicted shrinkage of ecological niches in the near future and shifted their habitat range towards the northeast. Consequently, P. sylvestris may contract its range and P. nigra may expand in Central Europe. To test whether native pine species have an advantage over introduced pine species in acclimation to a novel climate in Central Europe, we investigated the climate sensitivity and vitality of P. sylvestris, P. nigra and P. rigida. We sampled mature stands of each pine species at three sites in Central Europe, for which we determined climate–growth relationships: temporal stability of temperature and precipitation correlations with tree-ring width and resilience indices. Based on remote sensing data, we assessed differences in surface reflectance and photosynthetic activity obtained from the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our analyses revealed that the climate sensitivity and surface reflectance of pines are not due to their nativeness in Central Europe but better explained by local site conditions. The specificity and variability of drought events may determine both the homogeneous and diverse susceptibility of species to a negative water balance. Therefore, the character of future climatic extremes seems to be the key to understanding the acclimation of native and non-native pine species in Central Europe. Because our study do not provide evidence of the superiority of non-native pine species over P. sylvestris, and the potential impacts of introduced species on local habitats seem poorly understood in the face of climate change, we urge particular caution in introducing species with unrecognized invasive potential.
Ključne besede: Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus rigida, acclimation, climate sensitivity, drought resilience
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 18.09.2023; Ogledov: 355; Prenosov: 62
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,25 MB)
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10.
The potential global distribution of an emerging forest pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, under a changing climate
Nikica Ogris, Rein Drenkhan, Petr Vahalík, Thomas L. Cech, Martin Mullett, Katherine Tubby, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Ključne besede: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Ogledov: 299; Prenosov: 190
.pdf Celotno besedilo (11,59 MB)
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