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Iskalni niz: "avtor" (Rein Drenkhan) .

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1.
The potential global distribution of an emerging forest pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, under a changing climate
Nikica Ogris, Rein Drenkhan, Petr Vahalík, Thomas L. Cech, Martin Mullett, Katherine Tubby, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Ključne besede: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Ogledov: 317; Prenosov: 199
.pdf Celotno besedilo (11,59 MB)
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2.
Worldwide genetic structure elucidates the Eurasian origin and invasion pathways of Dothistroma septosporum, causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight
Martin S. Mullett, Rein Drenkhan, Kalev Adamson, Piotr Boroń, Anna Lenart-Boroń, Irene Barnes, Michal Tomšovský, Zuzana Jánošíková, Katarína Adamčíková, Emília Ondrušková, Barbara Piškur, Tine Hauptman, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Dothistroma septosporum, the primary causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight, is one of the most significant foliar pathogens of pine worldwide. Its wide host and environmental ranges have led to its global success as a pathogen and severe economic damage to pine forests in many regions. This comprehensive global population study elucidated the historical migration pathways of the pathogen to reveal the Eurasian origin of the fungus. When over 3800 isolates were examined, three major population clusters were revealed: North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe, with distinct subclusters in the highly diverse Eastern European cluster. Modeling of historical scenarios using approximate Bayesian computation revealed the North American cluster was derived from an ancestral population in Eurasia. The Northeastern European subcluster was shown to be ancestral to all other European clusters and subclusters. The Turkish subcluster diverged first, followed by the Central European subcluster, then the Western European cluster, which has subsequently spread to much of the Southern Hemisphere. All clusters and subclusters contained both mating-types of the fungus, indicating the potential for sexual reproduction, although asexual reproduction remained the primary mode of reproduction. The study strongly suggests the native range of D. septosporum to be in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Baltic and Western Russia) and Western Asia.
Ključne besede: Mycosphaerella pini, biogeography, ABC, DNB, global spread, introduction pathways, invasive pathogen, global spread
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 09.02.2021; Ogledov: 1211; Prenosov: 769
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,27 MB)
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3.
Global geographic distribution and host range of Fusarium circinatum, the causal agent of pine pitch canker
Rein Drenkhan, Beccy Ganley, Jorge Martín García, Petr Vahalík, Kalev Adamson, Katarína Adamčíková, Rodrigo Ahumada, Lior Blank, Helena Bragança, Paolo Capretti, Nikica Ogris, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: Fusarium circinatum, the causal agent of pine pitch canker (PPC), is currently one of the most important threats of Pinus spp. globally. This pathogen is known in many pine-growing regions, including natural and planted forests, and can affect all life stages of trees, from emerging seedlings to mature trees. Despite the importance of PPC, the global distribution of F. circinatum is poorly documented, and this problem is also true of the hosts within countries that are affected. The aim of this study was to review the global distribution of F. circinatum, with a particular focus on Europe. We considered (1) the current and historical pathogen records, both positive and negative, based on confirmed reports from Europe and globally; (2) the genetic diversity and population structure of the pathogen; (3) the current distribution of PPC in Europe, comparing published models of predicted disease distribution; and (4) host susceptibility by reviewing literature and generating a comprehensive list of known hosts for the fungus. These data were collated from 41 countries and used to compile a specially constructed geo-database (http://bit.do/phytoportal). A review of 6297 observation records showed that F. circinatum and the symptoms it causes on conifers occurred in 14 countries, including four in Europe, and is absent in 28 countries. Field observations and experimental data from 138 host species revealed 106 susceptible host species including 85 Pinus species, 6 non-pine tree species and 15 grass and herb species. Our data confirm that susceptibility to F. circinatum varies between different host species, tree ages and environmental characteristics. Knowledge on the geographic distribution, host range and the relative susceptibility of different hosts is essential for disease management, mitigation and containment strategies. The findings reported in this review will support countries that are currently free of F. circinatum in implementing effective procedures and restrictions and prevent further spread of the pathogen.
Ključne besede: invasive pathogen, climate change, interactive map of pathogen, susceptibility
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 13.07.2020; Ogledov: 2022; Prenosov: 1212
.pdf Celotno besedilo (848,95 KB)
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