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Iskalni niz: "avtor" (Baptiste Mourre) .

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1.
Tracking a mass mortality outbreak of pen shell Pinna nobilis populations : a collaborative effort of scientists and citizens
Miguel Cabanellas-Reboredo, Maite Vázquez-Luis, Baptiste Mourre, Elvira Álvarez, Salud Deudero, Ángel Amores, Piero Addis, Enric Ballesteros, Agustín Barrajón, Stefania Coppa, Borut Mavrič, 2019, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: A mass mortality event is devastating the populations of the endemic bivalve Pinna nobilis in the Mediterranean Sea from early autumn 2016. A newly described Haplosporidian endoparasite (Haplosporidium pinnae) is the most probable cause of this ecological catastrophe placing one of the largest bivalves of the world on the brink of extinction. As a pivotal step towards Pinna nobilis conservation, this contribution combines scientists and citizens’ data to address the fast- and vast-dispersion and prevalence outbreaks of the pathogen. Therefore, the potential role of currents on parasite expansion was addressed by means of drift simulations of virtual particles in a high-resolution regional currents model. A generalized additive model was implemented to test if environmental factors could modulate the infection of Pinna nobilis populations. The results strongly suggest that the parasite has probably dispersed regionally by surface currents, and that the disease expression seems to be closely related to temperatures above 13.5 °C and to a salinity range between 36.5–39.7 psu. The most likely spread of the disease along the Mediterranean basin associated with scattered survival spots and very few survivors (potentially resistant individuals), point to a challenging scenario for conservation of the emblematic Pinna nobilis, which will require fast and strategic management measures and should make use of the essential role citizen science projects can play.
Ključne besede: mass mortality, endoparasites
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 24.07.2024; Ogledov: 509; Prenosov: 359
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,86 MB)
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2.
On the potential of ensemble forecasting for the prediction of meteotsunamis in the Balearic Islands : sensitivity to atmospheric model parameterizations
Baptiste Mourre, A. Santana, A. Buils, L. Gautreau, Matjaž Ličer, Agusti Jansá, B. Casas, B. Amengual, Joaquín Tintoré, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek

Povzetek: This study investigates the potential of ensemble forecasting using full realistic high-resolution nested atmosphere–ocean models for the prediction of meteotsunamis in Ciutadella (Menorca, Spain). The sensitivity of model results to the parameterizations of the atmospheric model is assessed considering the ten most significant recent meteotsunami events for which observations are available. Different schemes adapted to high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used for the representation of cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer and longwave and shortwave radiations. Results indicate a large spread of the ensemble simulations in terms of the final magnitude of the meteotsunamis. While the modeling system is shown to be able to realistically trigger tsunamigenic atmospheric disturbances in more than 90% of the situations, the small-scale characteristics of these disturbances are significantly modified with the change of parameterizations, leading to significant differences in the magnitude of the simulated sea-level response. No preferred set of parameterizations can be identified that leads to either the largest or the most realistic magnitudes in the majority of situations. Instead, the performance of a given set of parameterizations is found to change with the meteotsunami event under consideration. Importantly, the observed magnitude of the extreme sea-level oscillations lies within the range of a nine-member ensemble in 70% of the cases. This ensemble approach would then allow to generate a realistic range of possibilities in the majority of events, thus improving the realism of meteotsunami predictions compared to single deterministic forecasts.
Ključne besede: meteotsunamis prediction, atmosphere, ocean modeling, ensemble forecasting, atmospheric model parameterizations
Objavljeno v DiRROS: 19.07.2024; Ogledov: 567; Prenosov: 383
.pdf Celotno besedilo (4,16 MB)
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