1. Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard modelPolona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, Andrej Gosar, 2024, original scientific article Abstract: Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling are important inputs into seismic hazard estimates. Although the importance of seismic coupling is often overlooked, it significantly impacts seismic hazard results. We present an estimation of upper and lower seismogenic depth and expected hypocentral depth and seismic coupling in the transition zone between the Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin, characterized by a complex deformation pattern, highly variable crustal thickness, and moderate seismic hazard, supporting the development of the 2021 seismic hazard model of Slovenia. The hazard model was based on three seismic source models: area source model, fault source model and smoothed seismicity (point) source model. We estimated the lower seismogenic depth using seismological and geological data and compared them. The seismological estimate was based on two regional earthquake catalogues prepared for this study. In the area source model, estimates of lower seismogenic depth from seismological data are deeper or equal to the ones derived from geological data, except in one case. In the fault source model, we analysed each fault individually and chose seismological lower depth estimates in 12 among 89 faults as more representative. The seismogenic thickness for each individual fault source was determined for seismic coupling determination. The seismic coupling was assessed by two approaches, i.e. we chose the most trusted value from the literature, and the value determined for each fault individually by using the approach based on the updated regional fault and earthquake data sets. The final estimate of seismic coupling ranges from 0.77 to 0.38. We compared the tectonic moment rate based on long-term slip rate using different values of seismic coupling with the seismic moment rate obtained from the earthquake catalogue. The analysis is done for the whole area, as well as for the individual area zones. The analysis of N–S components of estimated slip for the largest faults in the area of west Slovenia shows that the regional geological and geodetic shortening rates are comparable. The total activity rate of three global seismic source models is compared, which gives up to a 10 % difference. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the seismic activity in the region. The presented approach for seismic coupling estimation can be applied in cases where the total slip rate is given instead of its seismic part and can be used at regional or national level. The approach is also suitable for the cross-border harmonization of the European seismic hazard modelling data.
Keywords: seismic hazard, modeling, Slovenia
Published in DiRROS: 18.03.2024; Views: 111; Downloads: 63
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2. Structural health monitoring for performance assessment of bridges under flooding and seismic actionsLuke J. Prendergast, Maria P. Limongelli, Naida Ademovic, Andrej Anžlin, Gavin Kenneth, Mariano Zanini, 2018, original scientific article Abstract: Bridges can be subjected to damaging environmental actions due to flooding and seismic hazards. Flood actions that result in scour are a leading cause of bridge failure, while seismic actions that induce lateral forces may lead to high ductility demand that exceeds pier capacity. When combined, seismic actions and scour can lead to effects that depend on the governing scour condition affecting a bridge. Loss of stiffness under scour can reduce the ductility capacity of a bridge but can also lead to an increase in flexibility that may reduce seismic inertial forces. Conversely, increased flexibility can lead to deck collapse due to support loss, so there exists some uncertainty about the combined effect of both phenomena. A necessary step towards the performance assessment of bridges under flooding and seismic actions is to calibrate numerical models that can reproduce structural responses under different actions. A further step is verifying the achievement of performance goals defined by codes. Structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques allow the computation of performance parameters that are useful for calibrating numerical models and performing direct checks of performance goal compliance. In this paper, various strategies employed to monitor bridge health against scour and seismic actions are discussed, with a particular focus on vibration-based damage identification methods.
Keywords: scour, seismic, damage, hazard, vibration-based methods
Published in DiRROS: 29.11.2023; Views: 174; Downloads: 103
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3. Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st centuryMateja Jemec Auflič, Gašper Bokal, Špela Kumelj, Anže Medved, Mojca Dolinar, Jernej Jež, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.
Keywords: climate change, landslides, models, hazard, prediction
Published in DiRROS: 09.03.2022; Views: 789; Downloads: 302
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4. Assessing the protective role of alpine forests against rockfall at regional scaleChristian Scheidl, Micha Heiser, Sonja Vospernik, Elisabeth Lauss, Frank Perzl, Andreas Kofler, Karl Kleemayr, Francesco Bettella, Emanuele Lingua, Matteo Garbarino, Mitja Skudnik, Daniel Trappmann, Frédéric Berger, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: Worldwide, mountain forests represent a significant factor in reducing rockfall risk over long periods of time on large potential disposition areas. While the economic value of technical protection measures against rockfall can be clearly determined and their benefits indicated, there is no general consensus on the quantification of the protective effect of forests. Experience shows that wherever there is forest, the implementation of technical measures to reduce risk of rockfall might often be dispensable or cheaper, and large deforestations (e.g. after windthrows, forest fires, clear-cuts) often show an increased incidence of rockfall events. This study focussed on how the protective effect of a forest against rockfall can be quantified on an alpine transregional scale. We therefore estimated the runout length, in terms of the angle of reach, of 700 individual rockfall trajectories from 39 release areas from Austria, Germany, Italy and Slovenia. All recorded rockfall events passed through forests which were classified either as coppice forests or, according to the CORINE classification of land cover, as mixed, coniferous or broadleaved dominated high forest stands. For each individual rockfall trajectory, we measured the forest structural parameters stem number, basal area, top height, ratio of shrub to high forest and share of coniferous trees. To quantify the protective effect of forests on rockfall, a hazard reduction factor is introduced, defined as the ratio between an expected angle of reach without forest and the back-calculated forest-influenced angles of reach. The results show that forests significantly reduce the runout length of rockfall. The highest reduction was observed for mixed high forest stands, while the lowest hazard reduction was observed for high forest stands dominated either by coniferous or broadleaved tree species. This implies that as soon as one tree species dominates, the risk reduction factor becomes lower. Coppice forests showed the lowest variability in hazard reduction. Hazard reduction due to forests increases, on average, by 7% for an increase in the stem number by 100 stems per hectare. The proposed concept allows a global view of the effectiveness of protective forests against rockfall processes and thus enable to value forest ecosystem services for future transregional assessments on a European level. Based on our results, general cost%benefit considerations of nature-based solutions against rockfall, such as protective forests as well as first-order evaluations of rockfall hazard reduction effects of silvicultural measures within the different forest types, can be supported.
Keywords: protection forests, rockfall, European Alps, rockfall hazard
Published in DiRROS: 13.07.2020; Views: 1579; Downloads: 935
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6. Alpine cultural heritage and natural hazards : where do we stand? : review and survey - framework analysis on Alpine cultural identity and natural hazardsAnže Japelj, Andreja Ferreira, Špela Planinšek, Anže Martin Pintar, 2019, professional monograph Keywords: cultural heritage, Alpine region, natural hazard, forest, capitalization process, system of natural hazards, typologies of natural disasters, policies and tools
Published in DiRROS: 18.02.2020; Views: 1790; Downloads: 850
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