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Query: "author" (Martin S. Mullett) .

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1.
The potential global distribution of an emerging forest pathogen, Lecanosticta acicola, under a changing climate
Nikica Ogris, Rein Drenkhan, Petr Vahalík, Thomas L. Cech, Martin Mullett, Katherine Tubby, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: Brown spot needle blight (BSNB), caused by Lecanosticta acicola (Thüm.) Syd., is an emerging forest disease of Pinus species originating from North America and introduced to Europe and Asia. Severity and spread of the disease has increased in the last two decades in North America and Europe as a response to climate change. No modeling work on spread, severity, climatic suitability, or potential distribution has been done for this important emerging pathogen. This study utilizes a global dataset of 2,970 independent observations of L. acicola presence and absence from the geodatabase, together with Pinus spp. distribution data and 44 independent climatic and environmental variables. The objectives were to (1) identify which bioclimatic and environmental variables are most influential in the distribution of L. acicola; (2) compare four modeling approaches to determine which modeling method best fits the data; (3) examine the realized distribution of the pathogen under climatic conditions in the reference period (1971–2000); and (4) predict the potential future global distribution of the pathogen under various climate change scenarios. These objectives were achieved using a species distribution modeling. Four modeling approaches were tested: regression-based model, individual classification trees, bagging with three different base learners, and random forest. Altogether, eight models were developed. An ensemble of the three best models was used to make predictions for the potential distribution of L. acicola: bagging with random tree, bagging with logistic model trees, and random forest. Performance of the model ensemble was very good, with high precision (0.87) and very high AUC (0.94). The potential distribution of L. acicola was computed for five global climate models (GCM) and three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP): SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5. The results of the five GCMs were averaged on combined SSP-RCP (median) per 30-year period. Eight of 44 studied factors determined as most important in explaining L. acicola distribution were included in the models: mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation seasonality, moisture in upper portion of soil column of wettest quarter, surface downwelling longwave radiation of driest quarter, surface downwelling shortwave radiation of warmest quarter and elevation. The actual distribution of L. acicola in the reference period 1971–2000 covered 5.9% of Pinus spp. area globally. However, the model ensemble predicted potential distribution of L. acicola to cover an average of 58.2% of Pinus species global cover in the reference period. Different climate change scenarios (five GCMs, three SSP-RCPs) showed a positive trend in possible range expansion of L. acicola for the period 1971–2100. The average model predictions toward the end of the century showed the potential distribution of L. acicola rising to 62.2, 61.9, 60.3% of Pinus spp. area for SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5, respectively. However, the 95% confidence interval encompassed 35.7–82.3% of global Pinus spp. area in the period 1971–2000 and 33.6–85.8% in the period 2071–2100. It was found that SSP-RCPs had a little effect on variability of BSNB potential distribution (60.3–62.2% in the period 2071–2100 for medium prediction). In contrast, GCMs had vast impact on the potential distribution of L. acicola (33.6–85.8% of global pines area). The maps of potential distribution of BSNB will assist forest managers in considering the risk of BSNB. The results will allow practitioners and policymakers to focus surveillance methods and implement appropriate management plans.
Keywords: brown spot needle blight, BSNB, pines, species distribution model, climate change, biosecurity
Published in DiRROS: 02.08.2023; Views: 317; Downloads: 199
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2.
Diversity, migration routes, and worldwide population genetic structure of Lecanosticta acicola, the causal agent of brown spot needle blight
Marili Laas, Kalev Adamson, Irene Barnes, Josef Janoušek, Martin S. Mullett, Katarína Adamčíková, Mitsuteru Akiba, Ludwig Beenken, Helena Bragança, Timur S. Bulgakov, Barbara Piškur, 2022, original scientific article

Abstract: Lecanosticta acicola is a pine needle pathogen causing brown spot needle blight that results in premature needle shedding with considerable damage described in North America, Europe, and Asia. Microsatellite and mating type markers were used to study the population genetics, migration history, and reproduction mode of the pathogen, based on a collection of 650 isolates from 27 countries and 26 hosts across the range of L. acicola. The presence of L. acicola in Georgia was confirmed in this study. Migration analyses indicate there have been several introduction events from North America into Europe. However, some of the source populations still appear to remain unknown. The populations in Croatia and western Asia appear to originate from genetically similar populations in North America. Intercontinental movement of the pathogen was reflected in an identical haplotype occurring on two continents, in North America (Canada) and Europe (Germany). Several shared haplotypes between European populations further suggests more local pathogen movement between countries. Moreover, migration analyses indicate that the populations in northern Europe originate from more established populations in central Europe. Overall, the highest genetic diversity was observed in south-eastern USA. In Europe, the highest diversity was observed in France, where the presence of both known pathogen lineages was recorded. Less than half of the observed populations contained mating types in equal proportions. Although there is evidence of some sexual reproduction taking place, the pathogen spreads predominantly asexually and through anthropogenic activity.
Keywords: brown spot needle blight, Lecanosticta acicola, pones, Pinus spp., popularion structure
Published in DiRROS: 12.08.2022; Views: 557; Downloads: 274
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3.
Worldwide genetic structure elucidates the Eurasian origin and invasion pathways of Dothistroma septosporum, causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight
Martin S. Mullett, Rein Drenkhan, Kalev Adamson, Piotr Boroń, Anna Lenart-Boroń, Irene Barnes, Michal Tomšovský, Zuzana Jánošíková, Katarína Adamčíková, Emília Ondrušková, Barbara Piškur, Tine Hauptman, 2021, original scientific article

Abstract: Dothistroma septosporum, the primary causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight, is one of the most significant foliar pathogens of pine worldwide. Its wide host and environmental ranges have led to its global success as a pathogen and severe economic damage to pine forests in many regions. This comprehensive global population study elucidated the historical migration pathways of the pathogen to reveal the Eurasian origin of the fungus. When over 3800 isolates were examined, three major population clusters were revealed: North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe, with distinct subclusters in the highly diverse Eastern European cluster. Modeling of historical scenarios using approximate Bayesian computation revealed the North American cluster was derived from an ancestral population in Eurasia. The Northeastern European subcluster was shown to be ancestral to all other European clusters and subclusters. The Turkish subcluster diverged first, followed by the Central European subcluster, then the Western European cluster, which has subsequently spread to much of the Southern Hemisphere. All clusters and subclusters contained both mating-types of the fungus, indicating the potential for sexual reproduction, although asexual reproduction remained the primary mode of reproduction. The study strongly suggests the native range of D. septosporum to be in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Baltic and Western Russia) and Western Asia.
Keywords: Mycosphaerella pini, biogeography, ABC, DNB, global spread, introduction pathways, invasive pathogen, global spread
Published in DiRROS: 09.02.2021; Views: 1211; Downloads: 769
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