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Abstract: Climate is a primary, but non-stationary, driver of tree growth. Climate change is altering the sensitivity of forest growth to water availability and temperature over time. It is considered that pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) will cope with the changing climatic conditions in Europe in the near future. However, while species distribution models project expansion zones, they also identify reductions in occurrence at the dry and warm distribution margins. Whereas species distribution models primarily rely on occurrence data, tree rings––given their long-term perspective and their use in empirical models––can provide a mechanistic view of forest growth dynamics, including temporally changing climate responses. Increased climate sensitivity and growth synchrony are key dendroecological indicators of tree stress. Here, we used an unprecedented network of 150 Q. robur sites (over 3,300 trees), covering the full projected range of contracting to persistent areas across Europe, to assess the dendroecological indicators over recent decades in relation to species distribution model predictions. We reveal that oaks in areas projected to experience range contraction exhibited greater sensitivity to current growing season climatic conditions, whereas those in persistence areas responded more strongly to previous season conditions. Growth synchrony among trees was higher in the contraction areas, but showed no significant increasing trend over the last 70 years, as expected from ecotone theory. Temporal shifts in climate sensitivity were stronger for temperature and vapor pressure deficit in the persistence areas, whereas the climatic water balance gained importance in the contraction zones. These findings suggest that Q. robur growth is not yet being severely affected by climate change, and that the species is currently coping well with the climate changes, even in regions with projected range contractions, thereby challenging statistically derived scenarios of range shift based on species distribution models.
Keywords: adaptation, allometry, phloemsieve element, xylem vessel
Published in DiRROS: 04.11.2025; Views: 324; Downloads: 149
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Abstract: Across much of Europe, climate change has caused a major dieback of Norway spruce (Picea abies L.), an economically important tree species. However, the southeasternmost fringe of this tree species – the Eastern Carpathians – has not yet suffered large-scale dieback. Studying temporal shifts of climate sensitivity (TSCS) over time may elucidate the degree to which Norway spruce may be vulnerable to climate-change induced decline in upcoming decades. Under this framework, we analyzed a regional tree-ring network comprising >3000 trees, with the aim of quantifying TSCS since 1950. We mathematically defined TSCS as the slope parameter of the regression of climate sensitivity (the correlation coefficient) over time. Given the often-observed contrasting shift of climate sensitivity at low versus high elevations, we were particularly interested in studying potentially divergent TSCS along elevational and spatial gradients. Our analyses revealed several indications of TSCS for Norway spruce in the Eastern Carpathians. First, at high elevations (>1100 m a.s.l.), we found that the positive link between summer temperature and spruce growth decreased significantly over the study period. In turn, these trees, over time, featured an increasing positive relationship with late winter temperatures. At low elevations (<800 m a.s.l.), the signal of positive summer Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) correlation became more frequent among sites towards 2021, while the strength of the positive winter SPEI correlation from the previous growing season weakened. Our results revealed that TSCS was driven significantly by an elevational climate gradient and a longitudinal continentality gradient. Overall, our findings indicate that Norway spruce is increasingly affected by water limitations under climate change at low elevations, highlighting a potentially rising risk of decline of this species in the Eastern Carpathians.
Keywords: temperature, water availability, climate change, tree-ring width, non-stationarity, Picea abies, daily climate-growth relationships
Published in DiRROS: 30.09.2024; Views: 1065; Downloads: 1103
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