20.500.12556/DiRROS-31382 The prediction of climate-driven habitat shifts of the rare and threatened moss Buxbaumia viridis in Slovenia Buxbaumia viridis is a peculiar, deadwood-dependent cryptogamous moss characterized by reduced gametophytes and prominent sporophytes that develop directly from the protonema. The species is threatened in many European countries, listed in the EU Habitats Directive (Annex II), and protected under the Bern Convention. We applied ensemble species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of B. viridis under multiple future climate scenarios and to assess its fate by analyzing the main bioclimatic and habitat factors influencing its survival in Slovenia, on the margin of the south-eastern Alps. The analysis was based on 54 occurrence records combined with bioclimatic, elevation and forest-type data using ensemble species distribution modeling. The models indicate that approximately 12% of Slovenia’s territory is potentially suitable for the species, primarily in mountainous regions, particularly in northern Slovenia. The highest probability of B. viridis occurrence was associated with very low minimum temperatures in the coldest month. Future projections predict a strong reduction in potentially suitable areas, ranging from 67.7 to 100%—depending on the reference period and emission scenario—indicating severe range contraction and a potential loss of suitable habitats and underscoring the urgent need for targeted conservation, monitoring and forest management strategies that preserve deadwood-rich forest stands with spruces and firs, to ensure long-term survival of B. viridis in Slovenia. bryophyte climate change forest ENM SDM biomod2 Europe podnebne spremembe gozdovi Evropa briofit true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2026-07-30 14:30:00 2026-07-30 14:30:01 2026-07-31 03:55:29 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 30. 7. 2026; str. 1-12 article no. ǂesr01520 Vol. 60 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 630*17:630*111 1613-4796 10.3354/esr01520 286489347 https://www.int-res.com/journals/esr/articles/esr01520 1 62d6a125-8c12-11f1-923b-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=48569 esr01520.pdf esr01520.pdf 1 811918035AE91631A8D64E88AD6A3F62 447af4acc3ca462b48ddced757ac113f182783990d75e33a0768dedc5eed9e2b 91fde0bd-8c12-11f1-923b-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=48571 Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0