20.500.12556/DiRROS-28695 Assessment of the potential shifts in the phenological development of representative spring plant species in Slovenia until the end of the 21st century using a model-based approach To assess the changes in the spring phenology in the future with particular emphasis on the elevation dependence of phenophase onset, a climate-driven phenological model was developed based on the spring indices methodology. Our study investigates both current and projected changes in the timing of flowering onset for common hazel (Corylus avellana), dandelion (Taraxacum officinale), and common lilac (Syringa vulgaris). We compiled comprehensive climate data and phenological records from 46 phenological stations of the National Phenological Network of the Slovenian Environment Agency for the period 1971–2020. In addition, we used climate projection data for the 21st century under two climate scenarios to evaluate potential future shifts in the onset of the selected phenophases. Specifically, we examined whether the agreement between model predictions and observed records varies with elevation during the reference period (1981–2010) and whether this relationship changes across three future climate periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. Model results indicate that spring phenophases are expected to occur earlier in Slovenia by the end of the 21st century, consistent with the projected increase in air temperatures. Moreover, the advancement in spring phenology will be more pronounced at higher elevations. plant phenology phenological model elevation dependence climate change fenologija rastlin fenološki model odvisnost od nadmorske višine podnebne spremembe true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Znanstveno delo 2026-03-30 09:12:48 2026-03-30 09:12:48 2026-03-31 04:01:12 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 30. 30. 2026; str. 1-11 article no. ǂ89 Vol. 70 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 630*18 1432-1254 10.1007/s00484-026-03143-2 273486595 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-026-03143-2 1 dd98d886-2c07-11f1-bbb2-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=42668 s00484-026-03143-2.pdf s00484-026-03143-2.pdf 1 5F498B01CE20F290FDF1D17544DD38EF 3fd0acebff59c88faec2676794d56aa4db85d0d2244e70f0c59e35f9f39df50c f5065c59-2c07-11f1-bbb2-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=42669 Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0