20.500.12556/DiRROS-25498 Climate-driven habitat shifts in brown algal forests: insights from the Adriatic Sea Brown algal forests (Cystoseira sensu lato) are key habitat-forming components of temperate rocky coasts but have experienced widespread decline across the Mediterranean Sea. This study investigates the current distribution and potential future shifts in brown algal forests across the Adriatic Sea under ongoing climate change. We combined non-destructive field-based mapping along the Slovenian coastline with remote-sensing products and spatial environmental predictors to model basin-wide habitat suitability. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) framework was applied to account for spatial non-stationarity and to explicitly capture the fact that environmental drivers of habitat suitability operate at different spatial scales—an assumption that global models such as GAM or standard GWR cannot adequately address. Habitat suitability maps were generated for present-day conditions and projected under mid- and late-century climate scenarios. The results reveal pronounced latitudinal gradients, identify areas of ongoing canopy decline in the northern Adriatic, and highlight parts of the southern Adriatic as potential climate refugia. Overall, the study demonstrates a likely north–south contraction of suitable habitat for brown algal forests and underscores the value of multiscale spatial modelling for informing marine spatial planning, conservation prioritization, and climate- adaptive restoration under European policy frameworks. brown algal forests Cystoseira s.l. habitat suitability spatial modelling Adriatic Sea climate change shifts gozdički rjavih alg primernost habitata prostorsko modeliranje Jadransko morje podnebne spremembe true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Neznano 2026-01-21 14:33:11 2026-01-21 14:33:11 2026-04-09 12:09:10 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 Soavtorji: Danijel Ivajnšič, Lovrenc Lipej, Domen Trkov, Borut Mavrič, Valentina Pitacco, Ana Fortič, Ana Lokovšek, Milijan Šiško, Martina Orlando-Bonaca; Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 20. 1. 2026; str. 1-22 no. 2, [article no.] 196 Vol. 14 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2026-01-17 574.5 2077-1312 10.3390/jmse14020196 265462275 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/14/2/196 1 be72ec79-f6cd-11f0-a15d-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=38649 RAZ_Donsa_Dasa_2026.pdf RAZ_Donsa_Dasa_2026.pdf 1 E05FE82C1D87BE817DFC68CB50753E7F 0be31e6ab13968589f39ce8f4ad2aa44fc8d5555791be7955cbc254ac97201ab d9074b18-f6cd-11f0-a15d-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=38650 Kmetijski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0