20.500.12556/DiRROS-22464 Localised multi-hazard risk assessment in Kyrgyz Republic Ocena tveganja večkratnih nevarnosti v Kirgiški republiki One of the key tasks in ensuring national security is the ability of the state and society to recognise and effectively assess the conditions for disasters, and to prevent them from threatening the sustainable development of the country. The Kyrgyz Republic is highly vulnerable to the influence of climate change, which in turn affects the frequency and intensity of disasters. The Kyrgyz Republic is exposed to almost all types of geological and man-made hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, flash floods, outbursts of mountain lakes, dam failures, avalanches, droughts, extreme temperature, epidemics and releases of hazardous substances. Analysis of information on existing risks and their control systems used to reduce their negative impact makes it possible to assess the degree of probability, the expected consequences of threats, determine the degree of risk, the adaptive potential of communities and select appropriate protective measures. Therefore, this study is conducted to assess the hazard, vulnerability and exposure of Suzak district (Jalal-Abad oblast) in order to quantify the risk of the study area using multi-parameter holistic assessment with field collecting of primary data and utilizing Index-based Risk Assessment approach based on applying INFORM Risk model. Collected data was used to downscale subnational INFORM Risk model for municipal and district level using a multi-layered structure. A risk score is calculated by combining 72 indicators that measure three main dimensions: hazard & exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity. These findings provide an opportunity to develop a more effective disaster risk management at the local and national levels, by prioritizing relevant actions and investments for municipalities – districts which are demonstrated relatively highest risk scores. Also, the possibility of applying localized risk assessment procedures provides an opportunity to obtain more accurate sub-national (district/oblast based) and national levels with effective assessing dynamics of risk. Ena izmed ključnih nalog pri zagotavljanju nacionalne varnosti je sposobnost države in družbe, da prepoznata in učinkovito ocenita pogoje za nesreče ter preprečita, da bi te ogrozile trajnostni razvoj države. Kirgizistan je zelo ranljiv za vplive podnebnih sprememb, ki vplivajo na pogostost in intenzivnost nesreč. Izpostavljen je skoraj vsem vrstam geoloških nevarnosti in tudi nevarnostim, ki jih povzroči človek, vključno s potresi, zemeljskimi plazovi, blatnimi tokovi, hudourniki, izbruhi gorskih jezer, porušenji jezov, snežnimi plazovi, sušami, ekstremnimi temperaturami, epidemijami in sproščanjem nevarnih snovi. Analiza informacij o obstoječih tveganjih in njihovih nadzornih sistemih, ki se uporabljajo za zmanjšanje njihovega negativnega vpliva, omogoča oceno stopnje verjetnosti, pričakovanih posledic, določitev stopnje tveganja, prilagoditvenega potenciala skupnosti in izbiro ustreznih zaščitnih ukrepov. V tem članku prikazujemo oceno nevarnosti, ranljivosti in izpostavljenosti okrožja Suzak (v regiji Džalal-Abad) z namenom kvantificiranja tveganja z uporabo večparametrske celostne ocene z zbiranjem primarnih podatkov na terenu in uporabo pristopa ocenjevanja tveganja na podlagi indeksa INFORM. Zbrani podatki so bili uporabljeni za prilagoditev regionalnega modela tveganja INFORM za občinsko in okrožno raven z uporabo večplastne strukture. Ocena tveganja je izračunana s kombinacijo 72 kazalnikov, ki merijo tri glavne dimenzije: nevarnost in izpostavljenost, ranljivost in pomanjkanje sposobnosti obvladovanja. Ti rezultati omogočajo razvoj učinkovitejšega upravljanja tveganj nesreč na lokalni in nacionalni ravni, s prednostnim določanjem ustreznih ukrepov in naložb za občine – okrožja, ki imajo relativno najvišje ocene tveganja. Možnost uporabe lokaliziranih postopkov ocenjevanja tveganja omogoča pridobitev natančnejših ocen tveganja na regionalni (okrožni/območni) in nacionalni ravni z učinkovitim ocenjevanjem dinamike tveganja. natural hazard risk exposure vulnerability disaster risk reduction disaster risk management Suzak district naravne nevarnosti tveganje izpostavljenost ranljivost zmanjševanje tveganja nesreč obvladovanje tveganja nesreč območje Suzak true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Neznano 2025-05-21 09:22:40 2025-05-21 09:22:40 2025-10-24 03:51:20 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2024 0 0 str. 301-315 no. 2 vol. 67 2024 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2024-12-16 504.4 0016-7789 10.5474/geologija.2024.015 220276739 1904-Article_Text-12342589-1-10-20241217.pdf 1904-Article_Text-12342589-1-10-20241217.pdf 1 018AC3443DC480A4A43271E3235929C8 3d7d0b0c533bbae3d42a5205d9dcfc4350ebb5607012b603e4e995af1fde829d 9b17dc5d-3614-11f0-963a-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=32460 Geološki zavod Slovenije Geologija 0 0 0