20.500.12556/DiRROS-20200 The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021–2040, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape. biological invasion invasive species species distribution model Oak pest biodiversity impact European oak forest Europe oak forest biološka invazija invazivne vrste model porazdelitve vrst Hrast gozdni škodljivci biotska raznovrstnost hrastov gozd Evropa true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Neznano 2024-08-13 09:06:04 2024-08-13 09:06:05 2024-08-14 03:35:41 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2024 0 0 Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 13. 8. 2024; 1-12 str. 174950] Vol. 949 2024 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2024-01-01 630*4 1879-1026 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950 204227843 RAZ_Ciceu_Albert_2024.pdf RAZ_Ciceu_Albert_2024.pdf 1 BF44A8C2CCEB9B5ACE10EFB56FE27663 c3d61cd62c6426016fc14c43e15199701086cf18d83de40d99cdc99de07c6d9f e006e159-5931-11ef-b487-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=28266 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724051003 0 e65a23a2-5931-11ef-b487-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=28267 Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0