20.500.12556/DiRROS-17388 More losses than gains? Distribution models predict species-specific shifts in climatic suitability for European beech forest herbs under climate change Introduction: Herbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes. Methods: By using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5). Results: Overall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa. Discussion: Our findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change. species distribution modelling global warming range shift climatic niche biogeography Europe modeliranje modeliranje razširjenosti vrst globalno segrevanje premik območja podnebna niša biogeografija Evropa true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Neznano 2023-11-29 13:25:47 2023-11-29 13:25:48 2024-05-10 12:31:58 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2023 0 0 Nasl. z nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 29. 11. 2023; str. 1-20 article no. ǂ1236842 Vol. 6 2023 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno apc 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2624-893X 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1236842 174181891 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1236842/full 1 0a70f00d-8eaa-11ee-9ccb-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=23624 RAZ_Kermavnar_Janez_2023.pdf RAZ_Kermavnar_Janez_2023.pdf 1 169F7188EB9B435ECB2C9E6754F87852 13f77c3c0d179077a745de4f5f87c5365771cf0c892977b862f9c9cf87d1c3ee 27914423-8eaa-11ee-9ccb-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=23625 Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0