20.500.12556/DiRROS-15305 Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in interannual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last %20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms. tree mortality ring-width forest growth resilience indicators drought biotic agents variance mortaliteta dreves debelinski prirastek klimatske spremembe gojenje gozda propadanje gozdnih ekosistemov true false true Angleški jezik Ni določen Neznano 2022-07-20 13:10:41 2022-07-20 13:10:42 2022-08-21 03:36:40 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2019 0 0 Nasl. iz nasl. zaslona; Opis vira z dne 9. 1. 2019; Skupno št. avtorjev: 49; Avtorji iz Slovenije: Katarina Čufar, Tom Levanič; Article 1964; 14 str. Vol. 9 2019 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 630*2:630*11:630*56(045)=111 1664-462X 10.3389/fpls.2018.01964 5289894 RAZ_Cailleret_Maxime_i2019.pdf RAZ_Cailleret_Maxime_i2019.pdf 1 328F8E86BFFACD3C0BC842555DF072EB 638806620655ff4404def40b4a50828212ab4194bb8644b059c83009ffe7f588 f7cbbd56-17b6-11ed-b6b8-001a4af901a5 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=20133 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964/full 1 https://dirros.openscience.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=20132 Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije 0 0 0