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Naslov:A comparison of models for forecasting the residential natural gas demand of an urban area
Avtorji:Hribar, Rok (Avtor)
Potočnik, Primož (Avtor)
Šilc, Jurij (Avtor)
Papa, Gregor (Avtor)
Jezik:Angleški jezik
Tipologija:1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija:LogoIJS - Institut Jožef Stefan
Povzetek:Forecasting the residential natural gas demand for large groups of buildings is extremely important for efficient logistics in the energy sector. In this paper different forecast models for residential natural gas demand of an urban area were implemented and compared. The models forecast gas demand with hourly resolution up to 60 h into the future. The model forecasts are based on past temperatures, forecasted temperatures and time variables, which include markers for holidays and other occasional events. The models were trained and tested on gas-consumption data gathered in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia. Machine-learning models were considered, such as linear regression, kernel machine and artificial neural network. Additionally, empirical models were developed based on data analysis. Two most accurate models were found to be recurrent neural network and linear regression model. In realistic setting such trained models can be used in conjunction with a weather-forecasting service to generate forecasts for future gas demand.
Ključne besede:demand forecasting, buildings, energy modeling, forecast accuracy, machine learning
Leto izida:2019
UDK:004.9:620.9(045)
ISSN pri članku:0360-5442
OceCobissID:25394688 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
COBISS_ID:31841575 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.175 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
Število ogledov:72
Število prenosov:38
Datoteke:.pdf RAZ_Hribar_Rok_i2019.pdf (968,06 KB)
 
Nadgradivo:Energy
Pergamon Press
 
Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije (ARRS)
Program financiranja:Ciljni raziskovalni programi
Številka projekta:P2-0098
Naslov projekta:
Akronim projekta:
ID projekta:info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ARRS/Ciljni%20raziskovalni%20programi/P2-0098
 
Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije (ARRS)
Program financiranja:Ciljni raziskovalni programi
Številka projekta:P2-0241
Naslov projekta:
Akronim projekta:
ID projekta:info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ARRS/Ciljni%20raziskovalni%20programi/P2-0241
 
Financer:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije (ARRS)
Program financiranja:Raziskovalni projekti - temeljni
Številka projekta:PR-07606
Naslov projekta:
Akronim projekta:
ID projekta:info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ARRS/Raziskovalni%20projekti%20-%20temeljni/PR-07606
 
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