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1.
More losses than gains? : Distribution models predict species-specific shifts in climatic suitability for European beech forest herbs under climate change
Janez Kermavnar, Lado Kutnar, Aleksander Marinšek, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: Introduction: Herbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes. Methods: By using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5). Results: Overall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa. Discussion: Our findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Keywords: species distribution modelling, global warming, range shift, climatic niche, biogeography, Europe
Published in DiRROS: 29.11.2023; Views: 213; Downloads: 105
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2.
Quality-assurance of heat-flow data: the new structure and evaluation scheme of the IHFC Global Heat Flow Database
Sven Fuchs, Ben Norden, Florian Neumann, Norbert Kaul, Akiko Tanaka, Ilmo T. Kukkonen, Christophe Pascal, Rodolfo Christiansen, Gianluca Gola, Dušan Rajver, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: Since 1963, the International Heat Flow Commission has been fostering the compilation of the Global Heat Flow Database to provide reliable heat-flow data. Over time, techniques and methodologies evolved, calling for a reorganization of the database structure and for a reassessment of stored heat-flow data. Here, we provide the results of a collaborative, community-driven approach to set-up a new, quality-approved global heat-flow database. We present background information on how heat-flow is determined and how this important thermal parameter could be systematically evaluated. The latter requires appropriate documentation of metadata to allow the application of a consistent evaluation scheme. The knowledge of basic data (name and coordinates of the site, depth range of temperature measurements, etc.), details on temperature and thermal-conductivity data and possible perturbing effects need to be given. The proposed heat-flow quality evaluation scheme can discriminate between different quality aspects affecting heat flow: numerical uncertainties, methodological uncertainties, and environmental effects. The resulting quality codes allow the evaluation of every stored heat-flow data entry. If mandatory basic data are missing, the entry is marked accordingly. In cases where more than one heat-flow determination is presented for one specific site, and all of them are considered for the site, the poorest evaluation score is inherited to the site level. The required data and the proposed scheme are presented in this paper. Due to the requirements of the newly developed evaluation scheme, the database structure as presented in 2021 has been updated and is available in the appendix of this paper. The new quality scheme will allow a comprehensible evaluation of the stored heat-flow data for the first time.
Keywords: heat-flow density, quality scheme, thermal geophysics, global heat flow database (GHFD), thermal parameter, data information system, International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC)
Published in DiRROS: 09.08.2023; Views: 305; Downloads: 114
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3.
The role of electricity mix and production efficiency improvements on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of building components and future refurbishment measures
Tajda Potrč Obrecht, Sabina Jordan, Andraž Legat, Alexander Passer, 2021, original scientific article

Abstract: Purpose: An estimation of the environmental impact of buildings by means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) raises uncertainty related to the parameters that are subject to major changes over longer time spans. The main aim of the present study is to evaluate the influence of modifications in the electricity mix and the production efficiency in the chosen reference year on the embodied impacts (i.e., greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions) of building materials and components and the possible impact of this on future refurbishment measures. Methods: A new LCA methodological approach was developed and implemented that can have a significant impact on the way in which existing buildings are assessed at the end of their service lives. The electricity mixes of different reference years were collected and assessed, and the main datasets and sub-datasets were modified according to the predefined substitution criteria. The influence of the electricity-mix modification and production efficiency were illustrated on a selected existing reference building, built in 1970. The relative contribution of the electricity mix to the embodied impact of the production phase was calculated for four different electricity mixes, with this comprising the electricity mix from 1970, the current electricity mix and two possible future electricity-mix scenarios for 2050. The residual value of the building was also estimated. Results and discussion: In the case presented, the relative share of the electricity mix GHG emission towards the total value was as high as 20% for separate building components. If this electricity mix is replaced with an electricity mix having greater environmental emissions, the relative contribution of the electricity mix to the total emissions can be even higher. When, by contrast, the modified electricity mix is almost decarbonized, the relative contribution to the total emissions may well be reduced to a point where it becomes negligible. The modification of the electricity mix can also influence the residual value of a building. In the observed case, the differences due to different electricity mixes were in the range of 10%. Conclusions: It was found that those parameters that are subject to a major change during the reference service period of the building should be treated dynamically in order to obtain reliable results. Future research is foreseen to provide additional knowledge concerning the influence of dynamic parameters on both the use phase and the end-of-life phase of buildings, and these findings will also be important when planning future refurbishment measures.
Keywords: global warming potential (GWP), production phase, electricity mix, production efciency, residual value, refurbishment, building components, life cycle assessment (LCA)
Published in DiRROS: 31.07.2023; Views: 357; Downloads: 169
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4.
Forest genetics research in the mediterranean basin : bibliometric analysis, knowledge gaps, and perspectives
Bruno Fady, Edoardo Esposito, Khaled Abulaila, Jelena M. Aleksic, Ricardo Alía, Paraskevi Alizoti, Ecaterina-Nicoleta Apostol, Filipos Aravanopoulos, Dalibor Ballian, Magda Bou Dagher Kharrat, Hojka Kraigher, Marjana Westergren, 2022, original scientific article

Abstract: Purpose of Review Recognizing that in the context of global change, tree genetic diversity represents a crucial resource for future forest adaptation, we review and highlight the major forest genetics research achievements of the past decades in biodiversity-rich countries of the Mediterranean region. For this, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of the scientific literature spanning the past thirty years (1991–2020). Putting together the representative regionwide expertise of our co-authorship, we propose research perspectives for the next decade. Recent Findings Forest genetics research in Mediterranean countries is organized into three different scientific domains of unequal importance. The domain “Population diversity and Differentiation” related to over 62% of all publications of the period, the domain “Environmental conditions, growth and stress response” to almost 23%, and the domain “Phylogeography” to almost 15%. Citation rate was trending the opposite way, indicating a strong and sustained interest in phylogeography and a rising interest for genetics research related to climate change and drought resistance. The share of publications from Asia and Africa to the total within the Mediterranean increased significantly during the 30-year period analyzed, reaching just below 30% during the last decade. Summary Describing poorly known species and populations, including marginal populations, using the full potential of genomic methods, testing adaptation in common gardens, and modeling adaptive capacity to build reliable scenarios for forest management remain strategic research priorities. Delineating areas of high and low genetic diversity, for conservation and restoration, respectively, is needed. Joining forces between forest management and forest research, sharing data, experience, and knowledge within and among countries will have to progress significantly, e.g., to assess the potential of Mediterranean genetic resources as assisted migration material worldwide.
Keywords: conservation ·, forest genetic resources, genetic diversity, global change, Mediterranean, sustainable management
Published in DiRROS: 09.12.2022; Views: 433; Downloads: 229
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5.
A meta-analysis of global fungal distribution reveals climate-driven patterns
Tomáš Větrovský, Petr Kohout, Martin Kopecky, Antonin Machac, Matěj Man, Barbara Doreen Bahnmann, Vendula Brabcová, Jinlyung Choi, Lenka Mészárosová, Zander Rainier Human, Clémentine Lepinay, Rubén López-Mondéjar, Tijana Martinović, 2019, original scientific article

Abstract: The evolutionary and environmental factors that shape fungal biogeography are incompletely understood. Here, we assemble a large dataset consisting of previously generated mycobiome data linked to specific geographical locations across the world. We use this dataset to describe the distribution of fungal taxa and to look for correlations with different environmental factors such as climate, soil and vegetation variables. Our meta-study identifies climate as an important driver of different aspects of fungal biogeography, including the global distribution of common fungi as well as the composition and diversity of fungal communities. In our analysis, fungal diversity is concentrated at high latitudes, in contrast with the opposite pattern previously shown for plants and other organisms. Mycorrhizal fungi appear to have narrower climatic tolerances than pathogenic fungi. We speculate that climate change could affect ecosystem functioning because of the narrow climatic tolerances of key fungal taxa.
Keywords: fungi, global distribution, climate
Published in DiRROS: 03.01.2022; Views: 754; Downloads: 551
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Worldwide genetic structure elucidates the Eurasian origin and invasion pathways of Dothistroma septosporum, causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight
Martin S. Mullett, Rein Drenkhan, Kalev Adamson, Piotr Boroń, Anna Lenart-Boroń, Irene Barnes, Michal Tomšovský, Zuzana Jánošíková, Katarína Adamčíková, Emília Ondrušková, Barbara Piškur, Tine Hauptman, 2021, original scientific article

Abstract: Dothistroma septosporum, the primary causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight, is one of the most significant foliar pathogens of pine worldwide. Its wide host and environmental ranges have led to its global success as a pathogen and severe economic damage to pine forests in many regions. This comprehensive global population study elucidated the historical migration pathways of the pathogen to reveal the Eurasian origin of the fungus. When over 3800 isolates were examined, three major population clusters were revealed: North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe, with distinct subclusters in the highly diverse Eastern European cluster. Modeling of historical scenarios using approximate Bayesian computation revealed the North American cluster was derived from an ancestral population in Eurasia. The Northeastern European subcluster was shown to be ancestral to all other European clusters and subclusters. The Turkish subcluster diverged first, followed by the Central European subcluster, then the Western European cluster, which has subsequently spread to much of the Southern Hemisphere. All clusters and subclusters contained both mating-types of the fungus, indicating the potential for sexual reproduction, although asexual reproduction remained the primary mode of reproduction. The study strongly suggests the native range of D. septosporum to be in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Baltic and Western Russia) and Western Asia.
Keywords: Mycosphaerella pini, biogeography, ABC, DNB, global spread, introduction pathways, invasive pathogen, global spread
Published in DiRROS: 09.02.2021; Views: 1211; Downloads: 767
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